Module 3 Fundamental Analysis

Chapter 11

The Financial Ratio Analysis (Part 3)

79

11.1 – The Valuation Ratio

Valuation in general, is the estimate of the ‘worth’ of something. In the context of investments, ‘something’ refers to the price of a stock. When making an investment decision, irrespective of how attractive the business appears, what matters finally is the valuation of the business. Valuations dictate the price you pay to acquire a business. Sometimes, a mediocre business at a ridiculously cheap valuation may be a great investment option as opposed to an exciting business with an extremely high valuation.

The valuation ratios help us develop a sense on how the stock price is valued by the market participants. These ratios help us understand the attractiveness of the stock price from an investment perspective. The point of valuation ratios is to compare the price of a stock viz a viz the benefits of owning it. Like all the other ratios we had looked at, the valuation ratios of a company should be evaluated alongside the company’s competitors.

M3-Ch11-title

Valuation ratios are usually computed as a ratio of the company’s share price to an aspect of its financial performance. We will be looking at the following three important valuation ratios:

  1. Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio
  2. Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio and
  3. Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio

Continuing with the Amara Raja Batteries Limited (ARBL) example, let us implement these ratios to see how ARBL fares. The stock price of ARBL is a vital input used to calculate the valuation ratios. As I write this chapter on 28th of Oct 2014, ARBL is trading at Rs.661 per share.

We also need the total number of shares outstanding in ARBL to calculate the above ratios. If you recollect, we have calculated the same in chapter 6. The total number of shares outstanding is 17,08,12,500 or 17.081Crs

Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio

In many cases, investors may use sales instead of earnings to value their investments. The earnings figure may not be true as some companies might be experiencing a cyclical low in their earning cycle. Additionally due to some accounting rules, a profitable company may seem to have no earnings at all, due to the huge write offs applicable to that industry. So, investors would prefer to use this ratio. This ratio compares the stock price of the company with the company’s sales per share. The formula to calculate the P/S ratio is:

Price to sales ratio = Current Share Price / Sales per Share

Let us calculate the same for ARBL. We will take up the denominator first:

Sales per share = Total Revenues / Total number of shares

We know from ARBL’s P&L statement the:

Total Revenue = Rs.3482 Crs

Number of Shares = 17.081 Crs

Sales per share = 3482 / 17.081

Therefore the Sales per share = Rs. 203.86

This means for every share outstanding, ARBL does Rs.203.86 worth of sales.

Price to Sales Ratio = 661 / 203.86

= 3.24x or 3.24 times

A P/S ratio of 3.24 times indicates that, for every Rs.1 of sales, the stock is valued Rs.3.24 times higher. Obviously, higher the P/S ratio, higher is the valuation of the firm. One has to compare the P/S ratio with its competitors in the industry to get a fair sense of how expensive or cheap the stock is.

Here is something that you need to remember while calculating the P/S ratio. Assume there are two companies (Company A and Company B) selling the same product. Both the companies generate a revenue of Rs.1000/-each. However, Company A retains Rs.250 as PAT and Company B retains Rs.150 as PAT. In this case, Company A has a profit margin of 25% versus Company B’s which has a 15% profit margin. Hence the sales of Company A is more valuable than the sales of Company B. Hence if Company A is trading at a higher P/S, then the valuation maybe justified, simply because every rupee of sales Company A generates, a higher profit is retained.

Hence whenever you feel a particular company is trading at a higher valuation from the P/S ratio perspective, do remember to check the profit margin for cues.

Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

Before we understand the Price to Book Value ratio, we need to understand what the term ‘Book Value’ means.

Consider a situation where the company has to close down its business and liquidate all its assets. What is the minimum value the company receives upon liquidation? The answer to this lies in the “Book Value” of the firm.

The “Book Value” of a firm is simply the amount of money left on table after the company pays off its obligations. Consider the book value as the salvage value of the company. Suppose the book value of a company is Rs.200Crs, then this is the amount of money the company can expect to receive after it sells everything and settles its debts. Usually the book value is expressed on a per share basis. For example, if the book value per share is Rs.60, then Rs.60 per share is what the shareholder can expect in case the company decides to liquidate. The ‘Book Value’ (BV) can be calculated as follows:

BV = [Share Capital + Reserves (excluding revaluation reserves) / Total Number of shares]

Let us calculate the same for ARBL:

From ARBL’s balance sheet we know:

Share Capital = Rs.17.1 Crs

Reserves = Rs.1345.6 Crs

Revaluation Reserves = 0

Number of shares: 17.081

Hence the Book Value per share = [17.1+1345.6 – 0] / 17.081

= Rs.79.8 per share

This means if ARBL were to liquidate all its assets and pay off its debt, Rs.79.8 per shares is what the shareholders can expect.

Moving ahead, if we divide the current market price of the stock by the book value per share, we will get the price to the book value of the firm. The P/BV indicates how many times the stock is trading over and above the book value of the firm. Clearly the higher the ratio, the more expensive the stock is.

Let us calculate this for ARBL. We know:

Stock price of ARBL = Rs.661 per share

BV of ARBL = 79.8 per share

P/BV = 661/79.8

= 8.3x or 8.3 times

This means ARBL is trading over 8.3 times its book value.

A high ratio could indicate the firm is overvalued relative to the equity/ book value of the company. A low ratio could indicate the company is undervalued relative to the equity/ book value of the company.

Price to Earning (P/E) Ratio

The Price to Earnings ratio is perhaps the most popular financial ratio. Everybody likes to check the P/E of a stock. Because of the popularity the P/E ratio enjoys, it is often considered the ‘financial ratio superstar’.

The P/E of a stock is calculated by dividing the current stock price by the Earning Per share (EPS). Before we proceed further to understand the PE ratio, let us understand what “Earnings per Share” (EPS) stands for.

EPS measures the profitability of a company on a per share basis. For example assume a certain company with 1000 shares outstanding generates a profit of Rs.200000/-.  Then the earnings on a per share basis would be:

=200000 / 1000

= Rs.200 per share.

Hence the EPS gives us a sense of the profits generated on a per share basis. Clearly, higher the EPS, better it is for its shareholders.

If you divide the current market price with EPS we get the Price to Earnings ratio of a firm. The P/E ratio measures the willingness of the market participants to pay for the stock, for every rupee of profit that the company generates. For example if the P/E of a certain firm is 15, then it simply means that for every unit of profit the company earns, the market participants are willing to pay 15 times. Higher the P/E, more expensive is the stock.

Let us calculate the P/E for ARBL. We know from its annual report –

PAT = Rs.367Crs

Total Number of Shares = 17.081 Crs

EPS = PAT / Total Number of shares

= 367 / 17.081

= Rs.21.49

Current Market Price of ARBL = 661

Hence P/E = 661 / 21.49

= 30.76 times

This means for every unit of profit generated by ARBL, the market participants are willing to pay Rs.30.76 to acquire the share.

Now assume, ARBL’s price jumps to Rs.750 while the EPS remains at Rs.21.49, the new P/E would be:

= 750/21.49

= 34.9 times

While the EPS stayed flat at Rs.21.49 per share, the stock’s P/E jumped. Why do you think this happened?

Clearly, the P/E Ratio jumped because of the increase in the stock price. As we know the stock price of a company increases when the expectations from the company increases.

Remember, P/E Ratio is calculated with ‘earnings’ in its denominator. While looking at the P/E ratio, do remember the following key points:

  1. P/E indicates how expensive or cheap the stock is trading at. Never buy stocks that are trading at high valuations. I personally do not like to buy stocks that are trading beyond 25 or at the most 30 times its earnings, irrespective of the company and the sector it belongs to
  2. The denominator in P/E ratio is the ‘Earnings’, and the earnings can be manipulated
  3. Make sure the company is not changing its accounting policy too often – this is one of the ways the company tries to manipulate its earnings.
  4. Pay attention to the way depreciation is treated. Provision for lesser depreciation can boost earnings
  5. If the company’s earnings are increasing but not its cash flows and sales, then clearly something is not right

11.2 – The Index Valuation

Just like a stock, the stock market indices such as the BSE Sensex and the CNX Nifty 50 have their valuations which can be measured by the P/E ,P/B and Dividend Yield ratios. The Index valuation is usually published by the stock exchanges on a daily basis. The index valuations give us a sense of how cheap or expensive the market is trading at. To calculate the CNX Nifty 50 P/E ratio, the National Stock Exchange combines the market capitalization for all the 50 stocks and divides that amount by the combined earnings for all the 50 stocks. Tracking the Index P/E ratio, gives a sense of the current state of market as perceived by the market participants. Here is the historical chart of Nifty 50 P/E ratio* –

M3-Ch11-chart1

* Source – Creytheon

From the P/E chart above, we can make a few important observations –

  1. The peak Index valuation was 28x (early 2008), what followed this was a major crash in the Indian markets
  2. The corrections drove the valuation down to almost 11x (late 2008, early 2009). This was the lowest valuation the Indian market had witnessed in the recent past
  3. Usually the Indian Indices P/E ratio ranges between 16x to 20x, with an average of 18x
  4. As of today (2014) we are trading around 22x, which is above the average P/E ratio

Based on these observations, the following conclusions can be made –

  1. One has to be cautious while investing in stocks when the market’s P/E valuations is above 22x
  2. Historically the best time to invest in the markets is when the valuations are around 16x or below.

One can easily find out Index P/E valuation on a daily basis by visiting the National Stock Exchange (NSE) website.

On NSE’s home page click on Products > Indices > Historical Data > P/E, P/B & Div > Search

In the search field enter today’s date and you will get the latest P/E valuation of the market. Do note, the NSE updates this information around 6:00 PM every day.

Here is a snapshot of the search result –

M3-Ch11-chart2

Clearly as of today (13th Nov 2014) the Indian market is trading close to the higher end of the P/E range; history suggests that we need to be cautious while taking investment decisions at this level.


Key takeaways from this chapter

  1. Valuation in general, is the estimate of the ‘worth’ of something
  2. Valuation ratios involves inputs from both the P&L statement and the Balance Sheet
  3. The Price to Sales ratio compares the stock price of the company with the company’s sales per share
    • Sales per share is simply the Sales divided by the Number of shares
  4. Sales of a company with a higher profit margin is more valuable in comparison to the sales of a company with lower profit margins
  5. If a company is going bankrupt, the ‘Book Value’ of a firm is simply the amount of money left on table after the company pays off its obligations
  6. Book value is usually expressed on a per share basis
  7. The Price/BV indicates how many times the stock price is trading over and above the book value of the firm
  8. EPS measures the profitability of a company on a per share basis
  9. The P/E ratio indicates the willingness of market participants to pay for a stock, keeping the company’s earnings in perspective
  10. One has to be cautious about the earning manipulation while evaluating the P/E ratio
  11. The Indices have a valuation which can be measured by the P/E, P/B or Dividend Yield ratio
  12. It is advisable to exercise caution when the Index is trading at a valuation of 22x or above
  13. A valuation gets attractive when the index is trading at 16x or below
  14. The index valuations are published by NSE on their website on a daily basis

79 comments

  1. Harshad Salvi says:

    Just out of curiosity, checked P/E multiples for Auto sector for past 6 months. It’s showing whopping figures of around 46-47. Does this mean that the sector is overheated ?
    Also, can you please clarify the meaning of dividend yield & how to analyse/interpret this no.?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      You need to view the PE of 46-47 wrt to its historical PEs to get a sense of how cheap or expensive the current PE is. I have explained about Index PE’s here in section 11.2, maybe it could be of help.

  2. Keerthan says:

    Kathik, I assume Working capital and Net working capital are the same. In this module you have calculated Working capital as CA-CL. However many times I have seen that there are many variations used by people like NWC=(Cash+Inventory+Accounts receivables)-CL, some people say use certain percentage of cash, some completely exclude cash and liquid investments etc. Could you clarify on this?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      Cash is most certainly a liquid asset, it should not be ignored. Stick to CA-CL to get a sense of the working capital situation of a company.

  3. Nilesh says:

    Hello Sir,
    I really appreciate your efforts, willingness to educate retail investors in simple language. Tata Steel PE ratio is very low, around 5 to 6. Should, I consider this an investment opportunity? If yes, why other investors are not buying it and stock is at low price today?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      P/E is just one of the many variables that help you understand the companies business. If it is a low PE, then there must be a reason for it. Request you to look at other things as well – revenue, operating margins, PBT, PAT, Debt, Leverage, ROE before making any investment decisions. Also, it is always good to compare it with its peers. Good luck.

  4. Nilesh says:

    Dear Sir,

    As I was analyzing some data, I observe that PE for tata steel as mentioned in rediff.com is 4.98 while it is mentioned as 11.44 on google finance web. EPS also varies. Would you please, guide what should be followed. EPS data also varies in both web. Also, would be great if you can elaborate forward PE.

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      Any financial ratio for a company can be calculated based on standalone numbers or consolidated numbers. Tata Steel’s standalone PE is 4.9x, while the consolidated PE is around 11.4x. Same goes with EPS. There is standalone and consolidated.

      Forward PE requires you to estimate forward EPS. For example if a company has made Rs.500 this year and it has 100 shares outstanding in the market then its current EPS is Rs.5 per share. Going forward if you believe the same company will make a profit of Rs.600 in the next financial year, then the ‘Forward EPS’ will be Rs.6 per share.

      • Nilesh says:

        Thank you very much sir, for explanation. I am fresh to the stock market and repeatedly reviewing Varsity contents. As I am reviewing things, questions are poping up. I hope you don’t mind.

  5. Mohit says:

    Could you please elaborate on the P/B ratio, as to its relevance for different industries and specifically as to why it is preferably used for studying capital intensive industries or financial firms

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      This is a blog post on its own, but let me make a quick attempt –

      Book Value = Total Shareholders Equity / Number of shares.

      Total Shareholders Equity = Reserves (Which includes retained earnings) + Shareholders Equity. Reserves of the company is a solid measure of how cash rich the company is. So in a sense Book Value tells us the strength of the company from a ‘cash’ perspective.

      Now industries such as capital intensive sectors and financial services are all highly leveraged..(they run on high debt)..so P/B in such circumstances gives a measure of the inherent strength of the company…note the P/B should be viewed along with other ratios to get a complete understanding of the business.

  6. Pearl says:

    Sir, in the PE section, you mentioned that we should not buy shares trading at high valuations. Can you explain why you said so?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      If valuations are high the obviously the stock price is high. If the stock price is high then there is no margin of safety. Hence one should buying stocks at high PE/valuations.

  7. Michael Mathew says:

    is nifty currently trading at high valuations?current PE ratio is 22.66.

  8. Priyank019 says:

    I have a doubt regarding PE ratio, as stated above and as per theory it shows the willingness of an investor what he wants to pay for every unit of profit earned. So when an investor is wiling to pay higher amount isn’t it showing a good sign?? Why are we taking higher PE as caution when investors are willing to still buy at that point?

  9. anil says:

    hi Karthik,

    where can i find list of companies which is about to issue bonus/dividend ?
    thanks in advance.

  10. Dijesh jk says:

    If we know the future eps of a company then how to calculate it’s share price..?
    Suppose, If ABC FY16 eps is 3.8 and FY17 eps is 6.8 and current stock price is 60, then how can we know the share price of coming year?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      There is nothing that will tell you the share price of the stock in the coming year, they are all just intelligent guesses 🙂

      Estimating EPS will only give you a sense of current valuation.

  11. suresh.ks says:

    Hi,sir
    i want to read annual reports and check financial ratios of all sector’s stock.
    Ill pick one stock from all sectors and check ratios and send mail
    please check and correct it if it is wrong calculations

    Regards
    Suresh

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      Suresh – unfortunately my schedule will not permit me to go through individual sheets. If you have any specific query, please do post it here and I’ll be more than happy to share a response.

  12. Rohit says:

    Hi Karthik,First Of All,Hats off to your efforts on putting all the possible contents of studying Stocks markets in Zerodha Varsity.
    Can you let us know how to Calculate Forward PE,For Ex if you Take Pidlite Current PE is 45 and Forward PE is 29(have read this in a report) which looks Attractive,Is there a Simple to Calculate Forward PE as this seems to one of the Key valuation while entering a Quality Stock.

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      PE is calculated as a Current Price / EPS. If you divided current price over current year EPS, you get PE. Now you can forecast next year EPS (usually via a financial model)…divide this by current price and you get forward PE.

  13. rohan says:

    Can you please explain this statement with example-

    “In many cases, investors may use sales instead of earnings to value their investments. The earnings figure may not be true as some companies might be experiencing a cyclical low in their earning cycle. Additionally due to some accounting rules, a profitable company may seem to have no earnings at all, due to the huge write offs applicable to that industry.”

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      Company like Symphony which manufactures air coolers may have a cyclical earnings. Months like December-Jan-Feb will be cyclical low as people wont be buying air coolers…but sales in months like April-May-June maybe high.

  14. Hitesh Menghwani says:

    Apart from financial ratio analysis what other analysis can be done from this type of data or other data for a company? Two things which I was able to find out were Altman Z Score and logistic regression to assign credit score and probability of default respectively. Please suggest a reference which explains this in simple and lucid manner (like you do) as I am not having a background in finance.

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      The financial statements are best used to access the financial position of the company and arrive at the value of the business. Something like a DCF analysis would be a good output here. DCF is explained later in this module.

      • Hitesh Menghwani says:

        Apart from DCF analysis are there any other methods of analysis or scoring that you know of? I need this methods with their explanations. If you are aware of this please suggest a good reference.

        • Karthik Rangappa says:

          Apart from DCF for valuations, there is the comparable method, ratios analysis, and statistical method. Not sure of a free resource that talks about these things.But you should check this – http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.in/ , probably the best authority on Valuations.

  15. Sai Sreedhar says:

    On money control website for every stock there is mention of P/E and P/C on quote page adjacent to each other. I understand P/E is price to earning ratio. I find that some of the good value investment stocks (like TCS) the difference between these two ratios is very less, and difference high for stocks which may not be recommended based on their valuations (like Nestle).
    Can you explain what is P/C?

  16. Ome says:

    Sir,
    I am looking for nifty chart of last 20 years, line chart, but it is difficult to find. Can you please tell me any website for the same?
    Also can you upload excel file with formula for fundamental analysis, that you have mentioned in your modeule? Or may I request a small module for excel, how to use it for calculation? I tried to Google but it is not as simple as your modules. Your modules are very simple and easy to understand.

  17. MSP says:

    Hi Nithin,

    Tata chemicals PAT 780.16 cr, Shares 254.82 cr, EPS is coming 3.06 , they are reporting 30.6, why so?

    Regards,
    MSP

  18. MSP says:

    Hi Karthik,

    Tata chemical numbers in balance sheet in cr only, i suppose, we needn’t to covert further.

    Regards,
    MSP

  19. Siddhartha Roy says:

    Hi,

    While going through some article on Fundamental Analysis, they mention about PEG ratio, which is P/E divided by Growth.
    Like to know how do we calculate the growth for the company, to derive the PEG ratio.

  20. niro says:

    Where can we find historical PE, PB ratios and DIV yield data for NSE stocks ? NSE website giving data only for Indices ?

  21. MSP says:

    Hi Karthik,

    This is with reference Sales/share Maruti

    Maruti 2015-2016 Balance sheet mentions share capital 15.10 cr, Face value of Maruti is Rs.5, hence i diveided 15.10 cr by 5, which is giving value 3.02 cr, when i divide sales of 59083.cr sales by 3.02, i am getting value of 19564.07cr, which doesn’t seems to be correct.

    Please suggest.

    Regards,
    MSP

  22. MSP says:

    Hi Karthik,

    Found , its my mistake, its 151 cr.

    Thanks.

    Regards,
    MSP

  23. MSP says:

    Hi Karthik,

    Maruti 2015-2016, consolidated balance sheet shows 151 cr share capital, is it possible company like Maruti has only 151 cr share capital ?

    Regards,
    MSP

  24. Kavitha says:

    Hi,
    What can the preferable P/BV ratio be for a company?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      No standard values for any financial metrics. You will have to look at each metrics in the backdrop of industry averages.

      • Akshath says:

        How to calculate industry average?
        Am I have to add all companies total earnings PAT and divide it by by total outstanding shares of all companies to get industry AVERAGE EPS?

        • Karthik Rangappa says:

          Depends on what average you need to calculate. If its earnings, then take the earnings of all companies and calculate the average. Check this with the company’s earning you are interested in. This will give you a sense.

  25. KP SRIKANTH says:

    How can I know what accounting principle has been followed by the company?
    could you just give about accounting principles ?
    And will company mention in the annual report about the write offs?

  26. shri31565 says:

    Hi,
    How to Analyse Stock by PE X PB Ratio? What is the good level ( OverValued /UnderValued), how to compare the stock of different company with PE X PB Ratio?

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      Its best of you look at these ratios on a standalone basis. Each stock is different and you should compare it to the industry to get a sense on over valued and under valued level.

  27. mohit_1607 says:

    Karthik, just wanted to know if this is a good time to invest. The PE for the index is above 23.

    • Karthik Rangappa says:

      Depends on your time frame….if you are investing for a very long time, it should not matter. However, if you are investing for a short time, I’m not sure if its a good time.

  28. Sathish says:

    Can you ladvise where we can get historical earnings data for nifty index. (Not p/e availabe in nse site)

  29. Nikhil Verma says:

    Sir, Can you please suggest me some books or materials to understand Macro Economics…

    Thanks….

  30. Vicky M says:

    Helllo sir,

    It seems that yoiu are using craytheon.com for data….is it worth paying all that money. Is the data good?

  31. Jinal says:

    The EPS given in the profit and loss statement is 21.51. Can we use that as well to calculate P/E ratio or we need to calculate from scratch like you did and got the number as 21.49 as EPS?

    Thanks

  32. hemanshi g says:

    where can i find list of companies which is about issue dividend?

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