It’s the economy, stupid! Company profits are falling and foreign investors are selling

We love IndiaDataHub’s weekly newsletter, ‘This Week in Data’, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we’ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don’t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to IndiaDataHub. All mistakes, of course, are our own. 

A rollercoaster for India Inc

The past couple of years have been like a seesaw for Indian companies. FY23 was a strong year for demand—people were coming out of lockdowns and ready to spend. Revenue growth was solid, but most Indian companies saw their margins shrink, which kept profits from matching sales. Why? Because the Russia-Ukraine war sent shockwaves through global supply chains, pushing commodity prices through the roof.

Then in FY24, the trend reversed. Commodity prices cooled down, and with this relief, margins rebounded. Thanks to the lower base effect, profits grew faster than revenues.

Now, in FY25, things are starting to settle. Earnings are normalizing, and we’re even seeing a slowdown. In fact, September’25 is the fifth consecutive quarter of slowing profit growth and the first since March ’23 where profits actually shrank — by 3.4%. Meanwhile, revenue growth has stayed steady, hovering around 7-8% through 2024.

The details of the latest quarter reveal some clear trouble spots. Key sectors like industrial commodities, construction, and investment-linked industries—think power and steel—have been especially sluggish. Demand is also lagging in consumer-driven sectors like FMCG and automotive, where growth is a struggle. FMCG companies are seeing only a slow recovery in rural areas, and urban demand is showing signs of cooling down.

While IT services and BFSI (banking, financial services, and insurance) held up a bit better, they couldn’t do much to lift the overall performance. IT managed steady demand, and BFSI saw a slight bump in interest income, although it was the slowest we’ve seen in a while. Plus, with credit growth slowing, BFSI’s interest income might stay stagnant in the coming quarters.

Healthy receipts but sluggish capex for India

Here’s an interesting snapshot of India’s income and capex scene lately. In September, corporate tax collections made a bit of a comeback, growing by 12% year-on-year after two months of decline. But zoom out a bit, and the picture isn’t as rosy—year-to-date corporate tax collections have grown by only 2% year-on-year, with an 8.3% dip just in the September quarter. Basically, corporate tax collections and corporate profit growth seem to be moving in sync, both facing a slowdown.

On the personal income tax side, things look a bit brighter with a 23% year-on-year growth in September. However, even here, there are signs of a cool-off. Growth in income tax collections slowed to 6.7% in the September quarter, the lowest rate we’ve seen in recent years.

So, if tax collections have been choppy, what about the government’s overall income? Turns out, it’s still growing at a solid pace, with total receipts up in the mid-teens. But here’s where it gets interesting: despite this steady inflow, there hasn’t been a pickup in capital expenditure (capex).

It was widely expected that post-elections, government capex would ramp up, giving the economy a boost. And initially, it seemed to go that way—July saw a massive 108% increase as the government, fresh from a June mandate, rolled out big spending plans. But since then, things haven’t been as rosy as expected. In September, central government capex dropped 2% year-on-year, following a sharp 30% year-on-year fall in August. Taking a step back, the bigger picture shows a 15% decline in capital expenditure for the first half of the year.

So, while the government’s revenue is holding up, the capex meant to fuel growth seems to be slowing down. It’s a curious situation—one that could affect the economic momentum many were counting on.

Do foreign investors not want to invest in India anymore?

Remember when media houses went all out in late September, celebrating India’s forex reserves crossing the $700 billion mark? It was a big deal, and we even covered it in The Daily Brief. The main driver behind this record-breaking reserve was a strong capital account balance, fueled by foreign investments—Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPI).

But then came October, and the markets took a sharp U-turn. We saw over $11 billion worth of FPI selling in equities—a record-breaking monthly outflow, even surpassing the previous high of $8.3 billion during the COVID crash in March 2020. The outflows could have been even larger if not for the $2.4 billion flowing into the primary market.

Markets didn’t take it lightly either. Nifty 50, for instance, dropped by 6.22%—the biggest monthly fall since the COVID era. Can we blame it all on the FPI selloff? Maybe not entirely, but it’s likely that all that selling pressure played a part in the market slide.  

FPIs were net sellers in debt as well, with outflows hitting just over $400 million. This outflow pressure has also started to weigh on India’s forex reserves, which have dipped by around $20 billion in the past four weeks. Is it a crisis? Not quite. India still has a hefty $682 billion in reserves, enough to handle further outflows if needed. But if this keeps up, it could start to test our limits.

Here’s why that matters: if reserves keep falling, the rupee could take a hit, and depreciate making imports pricier. And without a healthy stash of forex, bringing in things like fuel and essential goods could get harder too. We’re in a safe spot for now, but if the trend doesn’t slow down, it might get a bit tight down the road.

US GDP holds up, but jobs signal a softer path ahead

The US economy is holding up, but the signs are getting a bit softer. The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate for third-quarter GDP growth, showing a 2.8% annualized rate. That’s down slightly from 3% in the June quarter but still a solid number, especially in absolute terms. For now, 2.8% looks like healthy growth.

But when we take a closer look on the job market, things aren’t quite as strong. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October report showed a noticeable slowdown, with the economy adding only 12,000 jobs—a record low for this cycle. While hurricanes Helene and Milton may have distorted the numbers a bit, the slowdown is hard to ignore, especially since job growth for the previous two months was also revised down by a total of 112,000.

A softening labor market in the U.S. isn’t just a little blip; it’s something the Fed tends to keep a close eye on. Unlike most other central banks, the Fed actually has a mandate to support high employment, not just keep inflation in check.

So, when job numbers start looking weak, people expect the Fed to step in a bit more. That’s part of why markets are betting on a 50 basis point rate cut by year-end, with 25bps cuts at each of the two remaining meetings. Investors are pretty much counting on the Fed to give the economy a boost if job growth keeps losing steam.

That’s all for this week, folks!