Sapphire Foods India

June 26 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods India Ltd SAPI.NS:

• SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA - TAX DEMAND OF 977.06 MILLION RUPEES AGAINST CO FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 2022 TO MARCH 2023 AND APRIL 2023 TO MARCH 2024 DISMISSED

Source text: ID:nNSE6GHspy

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** Shares of Devyani International DEVY.NS jump 5.39% to 117.21 rupees

** KFC India operator says it has received a "no objection" letter from NSE and a "no adverse observations" letter from BSE for its proposed merger with Sapphire Foods India SAPI.NS

** Co says deal remains subject to approvals from regulators, shareholders and creditors

** DEVY rated "buy" on average by 23 analysts, median PT at 155 rupees - data compiled by LSEG

** YTD, stock down 20.83%

(Reporting by Surbhi Misra in Bengaluru)

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Sapphire Foods India has received no-objection letters from the National Stock Exchange and BSE for its proposed scheme of arrangement with Devyani International, the company said on Monday. The exchanges conveyed a no-objection and no adverse observations, respectively, clearing a key regulatory hurdle for the merger first announced in January 2026. The observation letters require the companies to obtain Competition Commission of India approval before filing with the NCLT and to disclose details of a secondary sale of up to 18.5% of Sapphire's equity by promoter entity Sapphire Foods Mauritius to Arctic International. The scheme will now proceed to shareholder and creditor approvals before final NCLT sanction.

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June 15 (Reuters) - Devyani International Ltd DEVY.NS:

• DEVYANI INTERNATIONAL - RECEIVES 'NO OBJECTION' FROM NSE AND 'NO ADVERSE OBSERVATIONS' FROM BSE FOR SAPPHIRE DEAL

Source text: ID:nBSE4wD7wS

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May 27 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods India Ltd SAPI.NS:

• SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA - RECEIVES SHOW CAUSE NOTICE AMOUNTING TO 977.1 MILLION RUPEES

Source text: ID:nBSE3FjBhd

Further company coverage: SAPI.NS

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** KFC India operator Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS rises 0.4% to 175 rupees

** Co reports wider Q4 consolidated net loss of 126.1 million rupees ($1.3 million) vs 47.9 million loss in Q3

** However, revenue from operations rises 11.4% y/y

** Emkay Capital says despite higher promotional, ad spends, KFC brand margins improved notably likely helped by price hikes and support from vendors

** Adds margins might face headwinds from likely increase in fuel costs, potential withdrawal of vendor support

** Despite LPG-related disruptions, co delivered strong performance with minimal store closures, resilient ops, BOB Capital Markets says

** YTD, SAPI down 32.3%

($1 = 94.7600 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Abhinav Parmar in Bengaluru)

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April 28 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS, the Indian operator of KFC and Pizza Hut chains, swung to a consolidated loss in the fourth quarter.

The franchisee for U.S.-based Yum Brands YUM.N reported a consolidated net loss of 126.1 million rupees ($1.33 million) for the March quarter, versus a profit of 17.9 million rupees a year earlier.

($1 = 94.5213 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Urvi Dugar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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** Shares of quick-service restaurant operators fall as LPG shortage concerns raise risks of higher near-term operating costs and store-level disruptions

** Jefferies says India imports roughly 60% of its LPG and natural gas needs and shortages have been seen in commercial kitchens amid Middle East tensions

** Adds retail and QSR sector earnings could see more than 5% hit in its base-case scenario from ongoing supply constraints

** Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS down 2.8% at 441.5 rupees, Devyani International DEVY.NS falls 3.27% to 96.3 rupees, Westlife Food WEST.NS down 1.44% to 436.05 rupees, Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS drops 4.44% to 152.16 rupees

** Shares of food-delivery platforms Eternal ETERNAL.NS down 1.13% at 230.51 rupees and Swiggy SWIGGY.NS fall 3.43% to 259.30 rupees

(Reporting by Surbhi Misra in Bengaluru)

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** Indian quick service restaurants fall 0.4%-4.5%

** Middle East conflict-driven commercial LPG shortage expected to disrupt ops, may hit delivery volumes

** Pizza Hut operator Devyani DEVY.NS down 4%, KFC operator Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS dips ~4.5%

** Market leader Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS eases 0.4%

** However, oil minister says India securing more LPG from new sources like U.S., Norway, Canada, Russia

** YTD, SAPI down ~37%; JUBI, DEVY falls 17% and 24%, respectively

(Reporting by Urvi Dugar in Bengaluru)

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Feb 6 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods India Ltd SAPI.NS:

• SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA Q3 CONSOL NET LOSS 47.9 MILLION RUPEES

• SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA Q3 CONSOL REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS 8.14 BILLION RUPEES

Source text: ID:nBSE2q0tK4

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Adds details and analyst comments throughout; updates shares

Jan 2 (Reuters) - India's KFC, Pizza Hut operator Devyani International jumped as much as 8.3% on Friday after announcing the long-anticipated $934 million merger with smaller peer Sapphire Foods, creating a fast-food major poised to challenge market leader Jubilant Foodworks.

The combined entity will operate more than 3,000 KFC and Pizza Hut outlets, franchises of Yum Brands YUM.N, in India and overseas, going up against the Domino's Pizza operator Jubilant's 3,480 outlets in the country.

Devyani's DEVY.NS stock was last trading 2.8% higher at 151.39 rupees.

The merger was a "welcome strategic move", said analysts at JP Morgan, as it meant a simplified structure, potential for meaningful cost savings and quicker decision making, helping Devyani compete more effectively with peers and food delivery platforms.

The merger comes as India's fast‑food franchisees contend with higher operating costs, slowing same‑store sales and margin pressures, while consumers trim discretionary spending. Both Devyani and Sapphire logged losses in the September 2025 quarter.

The combined business could deliver revenue and operating profit 50%–60% above current levels, with a scale and growth trajectory approaching Jubilant's, though margins are expected to remain comparatively weaker for now, added Emkay Global.

Devyani will issue 177 shares for every 100 Sapphire shares under the deal.

Sapphire Foods slipped about 3% to 254.25 rupees, while Jubilant's shares were trading 0.2% lower at 552.20 rupees.

The merger ratio is very close to where the stock prices closed on January 1 and so there is no major price adjustment that can arise out of this deal, said Jefferies analysts.

(Reporting by Urvi Dugar and Kashish Tandon in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)

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Jan 1 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods India Ltd SAPI.NS:

• DEVYANI INTERNATIONAL AND SAPPHIRE FOODS TO MERGE

• ARCTIC INTERNATIONAL TO ACQUIRE APPROXIMATELY 18.5% OF SFIL'S PAID UP EQUITY SHARE CAPITAL

• FULL INTEGRATION OF TWO ENTITIES EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 15 TO 18 MONTHS FROM DATE OF MERGER

Source text: ID:nBSE5TZkSn

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** Shares of quick service restaurant (QSR) operators gain between 1% and 3.5%

** India announced GST cuts on hundreds of consumer items ranging from soaps to small cars to spur domestic demand

** While the GST rate on QSR output remains same, lower tax on key inputs like cheese, other dairy products and chicken is down to 5% from 12%

** Jefferies says Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS, Devyani International DEVY.NS and Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS to benefit

** JUBI up 3.5%, while DEVY and SAPI rise 2.7% and 1.7%, respectively

** McDonald's India operator Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS climbs as much as 4.9%, last up 1.1%

** JUBI, SAPI, WEST rated "hold" on avg, DEVY rated "buy" - data compiled by LSEG

(Reporting by Manvi Pant in Bengaluru)

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By Praveen Paramasivam

Aug 26 (Reuters) - U.S. pizza chain Papa John's International PZZA.O plans to return to India by October, said a master franchisee executive, aiming to open 650 stores over the next decade in a market where fast-food chains have been struggling to sustain sales growth.

The world's third-largest pizza delivery company, which exited India in 2017 citing underperformance, follows U.S. rival Little Caesars, which opened in India earlier this year with a target of 100 stores by the decade-end.

Papa John's will open its first store in the southern city of Bengaluru, Vish Narain, managing partner at Pulsar Capital, told Reuters. The Indian investment house and UAE-based PJP Investments Group are Papa John's joint master franchisees in India.

The pizza chain had revealed plans in April 2023 to re-enter the "complex market".

Its return comes as fast-food chains grapple with weakening sales in the country, as cash-strapped urban consumers - the key customer base - cut back due to slow wage growth and as rising competition bites.

One of India's two Pizza Hut YUM.N franchisees, Devyani International DEVY.NS, has been closing underperforming stores, while the smaller operator, Sapphire Foods India SAPI.NS, has been cautious with its expansion plans.

The company will also face stiff competition from Domino's Pizza DPZ.O, which has more than 2,200 outlets in India, Pizza Hut with about 950 stores, and smaller upscale chains such as Pizza Bakery and PizzaExpress.

Pulsar Capital is betting on India's long-term potential, mirroring consumer-facing companies such as Dove soapmaker Hindustan Unilever HLL.NS and brewer Heineken HEIN.AS that are continuing to invest in the country with an eye on its population of 1.4 billion.

The fast-food "category is under-penetrated, so we are many years away from saturation," said Narain.

Papa John's plans to tailor its pizza to local palates while also offering its signature pies, joining fast-food rivals offering similar fare. KFC sells a paneer zinger burger, Domino's offers a chicken tikka pie, and Subway serves a potato-patty sandwich.

(Reporting by Praveen Paramasivam in Chennai; Editing by Dhanya Skariachan and Janane Venkatraman)

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** Macquarie cuts PTs on Indian fast food operators after weak Q1; says demand recovery only during Oct festive season

** Cuts PTs on Domino's franchisee Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS, McDonald's operator Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS, KFC franchisee Devyani International DEVY.NS and Pizza Hut operator Sapphire SAPI.NS

** Brokerage also lowers EPS estimates for all four with cautious near-term outlook

** Government's GST cut plans "enhances comfort" on demand recovery panning out in H2 FY26 - Macquarie

** Brokerage prefers DEVY followed by WEST; more confident on demand recovery for KFC and McDonald's operators

** On average, DEVY rated "buy", rest rated "hold", by analysts - data compiled by LSEG

** YTD, JUBI down 13%, DEVY falls 6%, WEST drops 11.3%, SAPI 1% down

(Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru)

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Aug 13 (Reuters) - Devyani International DEVY.NS, which operates Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in India, reported a nearly 88% slump in first-quarter profit on Wednesday, as it ramped up advertising to whip up demand that has remained sluggish for months.

The Yum Brands YUM.N franchisee reported a net profit of 36.9 million rupees ($420,920.55) for the quarter ended June 30, compared with 301.06 million rupees a year earlier.

Popular fast food chains in India have been struggling to grow the average daily spending as urban customers tighten their wallets amid high costs of living and feeble wage growth, despite easing inflation.

Yum's franchisee partners, Devyani and Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS, both of which operate Pizza Hut and KFC in India, have also turned to offering heavy discounts on meals amid promotional launches.

For the quarter, Devyani offered nine fried chicken pieces for 299 rupees, in a deal called 'epic savers'. It also offered two side dishes and a free Pepsi bottle with a medium-sized thin crust pizza at its Pizza Hut restaurants.

Still, the average daily spending fell to 98,000 rupees from 104,000 rupees a year ago at KFC chains, and to 33,000 rupees from 36,000 rupees at Devyani's Pizza Hut restaurants.

"While near-term macro factors have led to a phase of soft consumer demand, we see a better outlook for the industry in coming times," non-executive chairman Ravi Jaipuria said in a statement.

Revenue from operations rose 11.1% year-on-year to 13.57 billion rupees, benefitting from a restaurant count that was higher by over 300 year-on-year, including the addition of the recently acquired 'Biryani by Kilo' chain.

However, lower margins weighed on profitability.

Core profit margins contracted to 15.1% from 18.3% a year earlier, the company said.

($1 = 87.6650 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Ananta Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Sonia Cheema)

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July 31 (Reuters) - Indian Burger King operator Restaurant Brands Asia RESR.NS reported a narrower first-quarter loss on Thursday, as its discounted menu items continued to draw in budget-conscious diners.

The company reported a net loss of 419.4 million rupees ($4.79 million) for the three months ended June 30, compared to a 493.6 million rupee loss a year earlier.

Fast food chains in India have been grappling with the double whammy of stiff competition from local rivals and muted demand from urban consumers due to high living costs.

To lure in the price-conscious diner, Burger King extended its value deals in the quarter, offering two vegetarian burgers for 79 rupees and two chicken burgers for 99 rupees.

It has also been offering a range of 'Korean' flavored items to cash in on a growing fanbase for Korean dramas and music.

As a result, revenue from its India restaurants grew 12.6%.

Same-store sales, which refer to sales from stores open for at least 12 months, grew 2.6% in India, led by a growth in dine-in traffic.

Rival Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS, which operates the McDonald's restaurants in India, reported same store sales growth of 0.5% in the first quarter.

Overall revenue from operations for Restaurant Brands Asia grew 7.9% to 6.98 billion rupees, as a decline in sales in Indonesia - where it operates 139 restaurants - partly offset the growth in India.

Its India store count grew to 519 stores sequentially, with the company adding six stores in the quarter.

Westlife missed quarterly profit estimates and KFC operator Sapphire Food SAPI.NS swung to a loss in the first quarter due to higher costs.

($1 = 87.5800 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Ananta Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Janane Venkatraman)

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** India's Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS down 3%, Sapphire Foods India SAPI.NS slips 2%

** Westlife, which runs McDonald's MCD.N outlets in west and south India, posted a 62% plunge in profit

** Sapphire, which runs KFC and Pizza Hut, swung to a net loss of 18 million rupees ($208,261)

** SAPI's Q1 core profit below our and street's estimates, we are concerned about cautious near-term growth outlook and dependence on recovery for margin expansion - Macquarie note

** WEST's margins "in-line" and no improvement in growth metrics, we remain watchful of demand getting better - Motilal Oswal

** On an avg SAPI rated "buy", WEST rated "hold" - data compiled by LSEG

** YTD, WEST down ~5% and SAPI up 2%

($1 = 86.3340 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

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** Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS, which operates KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants in India, falls as much as 4.5% to 320.25 rupees

** Yum Brands YUM.N franchisee reports Q1 loss of 18 mln rupees ($208,345.39) vs year-ago profit of 85.2 mln rupees on higher costs, stiff competition

** Q1 expenses rise 10.4% y/y due to higher costs of raw material and labour, outstripping 8.1% rise in revenue

** Same store sales flat at KFC y/y; down 8% at Pizza Hut

** SAPI last down 1.4%; stock flat YTD

(Reporting by Ananta Agarwal in Bengaluru)

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** Indian Pizza Hut and KFC operators Devyani International DEVY.NS and Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS rise 3% to 172.1 and 9.9% to 352.35 rupees respectively

** Yum Brands YUM.N is in talks to facilitate a merger of its two franchisee partners in India, Economic Times reports, citing people aware of the matter

** ** DEVY, SAPI, YUM did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment

** Sapphire set for best day since 11 Feb, 2022, if gains hold

** The negotiations could result in DEVY either acquiring the franchisee rights of KFC and Pizza Hut from SAPI, or all of KFC's franchisee stores in India getting consolidated under DEVY, report adds

** A 1:3 share swap ratio is being prepared with Sapphire shareholders getting one share of DEVY for every three owned, the report further said

** DEVY, SAPI, YUM did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment

(Reporting by Ananta Agarwal in Bengaluru)

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** Shares of Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS fall as much as 2.4% to 319.3 rupees apiece

** State tax authority dismisses appeal, confirms demand of 30.74 million rupees ($358,739) including tax, interest, and penalty

** SAPI, which is the India operator of KFC restaurants and Pizza Hut, says order will not have a material impact on its financial operations

** Adds it is in process of responding to demand order

** Shares down 0.7% in 2025 so far, underperforming the 5.4% rise in Nifty 500 index .NIFTY500

($1 = 85.6890 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru)

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May 7 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods India SAPI.NS, which operates Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants in the country, reported a quarterly revenue that missed estimates on Wednesday, as demand failed to pick up despite discounts.

The restaurant operator posted revenue from operations of 7.11 billion rupees ($83.98 million) for the fourth-quarter ended March 31, compared to 6.32 billion rupees a year earlier, according to a regulatory filing.

Analysts had expected 7.14 billion rupees, according to data compiled by LSEG.

($1 = 84.6600 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Praveen Paramasivam in Chennai and Ananta Agarwal in Bengaluru)

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** Long-term view on Indian QSRs (Quick Service Restaurants)remains constructive and the ongoing prolonged growth slowdown is nearing its end, says Emkay Global

** Sees potential for return of mid-teen growth in FY26E for QSRs, beyond the muted Q4 - Emkay

** Emkay covers Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS, Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS and Devyani International DEVY.NS with "add", while Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS gets a "buy" rating.

** JUBI, DEVY and WEST up between 0.8%-4.2%, while SAPI is down close to 1%

** Average recommendation for JUBI, DEVY and SAPI is "buy," while WEST is a "hold", as per LSEG data

** Emkay remains in favor of JUBI and Sapphire, led by relatively better operating performance

** Maintains "add" on Westlife and upgrades Devyani to "add" from "reduce", due to price correction.

(Reporting by Shivani Tanna in Bengaluru)

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** Shares of Domino's Pizza DPZ.O franchise Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS fall 4.3% to 642.4 rupees

** Co said on Thursday it expects 200 bps growth in PAT margin over FY25-FY28, double digit rev compound growth by adding 1000 new stores

** Guidance of merely 200 bps PAT margin scale-up over next three years disappointing, said analysts at Nuvama Institutional Equities

** Emkay Research said growth strategy sound but margin pickup slow

** Factors including hike in delivery sales mix, high debt, interest cost, investments logistics will put pressure on margins, said Philip Capital analysts

** Avg rating on JUBI "buy", same as rivals Devyani International DEVY.NS and Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS - data compiled by LSEG

** Stock down ~7% so far this year vs a fall of 5% and 7% in DEVY and SAPI, respectively

(Reporting by Ashna Teresa Britto in Bengaluru)

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Feb 6 (Reuters) - Sapphire Foods India Ltd SAPI.NS:

• SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA Q3 CONSOL NET PROFIT 119.8 MILLION RUPEES; IBES EST. 116.8 MILLION RUPEES

• SAPPHIRE FOODS INDIA Q3 CONSOL REVENUE FROM OPERATIONS 7.57 BILLION RUPEES; IBES EST. 7.48 BILLION RUPEES

Source text: [ID:]

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** Indian restaurant operator stocks jump between 3% and 10% after slew of demand-boosting measures in union budget

** Zomato ZOMT.NS and Swiggy SWIG.NS soar 6.5% and 7%, respectively

** Both were hit hard by cooling demand over last two months

** Among restaurant operators, Pizza Hut and KFC India franchisee Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS gains the most; Burger King's Indian operator Restaurant Brands Asia's RESR.NS up 3%, rising the least

** Domino's franchisee Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS gains 5%, Pizza Hut's other Indian operator Devyani Internatinal adds ~7%; McDonald's franchisee Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS advances 8.8%

** Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says those earning up to 1.28 mln rupees ($14,791.53)/year won't have to pay any taxes

($1 = 86.5360 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Nandan Mandayam in Bengaluru)

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** Macquarie Equity Research anticipates uptick in demand for KFC in India, expects a turnaround for Pizza Hut, and a value-based recovery for McDonald's chains

** Devyani International DEVY.NS and Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS operate KFC and Pizza Hut chains in India, while Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS operates McDonald's

** Macquarie initiates coverage on DEVY and SAPI with "outperform" while reiterating the same on WEST

** There is near-term risk for KFC's same-store sales growth, but focus on value, strong competitive position in chicken, favorable base are expected to drive steady recovery - Macquarie

** Adds, pace of KFC store additions likely to be slower in SAPI vs DEVY due to longer gestation for chicken adoption in SAPI's KFC geographies

** Expects healthy EBITDA growth for DEVY in KFC given competitive position in chicken category

** For WEST, expects continued growth in footfalls buoyed by focus on value and launch of McCrispy chicken platform

** DEVY up 4.5% currently, while WEST up 0.2%; SAPI down 0.5%

** SAPI gained 16% in 2024, while DEVY and WEST shed 6% and 3%, respectively

(Reporting by Ashna Teresa Britto in Bengaluru)

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** Shares of India's McDonalds's operator Westlife Foodworld WEST.NS rise as much as 5.2% to 837.4 rupees, its highest since Sept. 27

** Goldman Sachs reiterates street high PT of 1,045 rupees, maintains "buy" rating

** Says positive impact of co's menu interventions expected to drive growth in Q3

** Co says confident of delivering positive same-store sales growth in Q3, will be better than peers, during interaction with GS

** Guest count to see decent growth in Q3, aided by soft base in year-ago quarter- GS

** More than 252,000 shares change hands, 2.2x its 30-day avg

** Rivals Domino's operator Jubilant Foodworks JUBI.NS rated "hold", KFC franchisees Devyani International DEVY.NS and Sapphire Foods SAPI.NS rated "buy" and Burger King operator Restaurant Brands Asia RESR.NS also at "buy"

(Reporting by Ashna Teresa Britto in Bengaluru)

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By Praveen Paramasivam, Shivangi Acharya

CHENNAI/NEW DELHI, Nov 13 - India's city dwellers are cutting spending on everything from cookies to fast food as persistently high inflation squeezes middle class budgets, threatening the country's brisk economic growth.

Slowing urban spending over the past three to four months has not only hurt the earnings of largest consumer goods firms, it has raised questions about the structural nature of India's long-term economic success.

Since the end of the pandemic, India's economic growth has been driven in large part by urban consumption, however, that now seems to be changing.

"There is a top end – the people with money are spending like that is going out of style," Nestle India Chairman Suresh Narayanan said.

"There used to be a middle segment, which used to be the segment that most of us fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms used to operate in, which is the middle class of the country, that seems to be shrinking."

Nestle India, which makes Kit Kats and other well-known goods, reported its first quarterly revenue drop since the COVID-hit June quarter in 2020.

While there is no officially defined income bracket for Indian middle class households, they are broadly estimated to account for a third of India's 1.4 billion people.

They are considered a key demographic both economically and politically, with middle class frustration seen as a significant factor behind Prime Minister Narendra Modi's weaker election performance this year.

Asia's third-largest economy is expected to expand 7.2% in the financial year ending March 2025, the fastest among its major peers.

Belying those rosy projections, however, are signs of a sharp slowdown in the household sector.

Indian urban consumption hit a two-year low this month, according to an index published by Citibank that captures indicators such as airline bookings, fuel sales and wages.

"While some of the fall could be temporary, the key macro drivers remain unfavourable," Citi's chief India economist Samiran Chakraborty said.

Growth in inflation-adjusted wage costs for listed Indian firms - a proxy for earnings of urban Indians - has remained below 2% for all the three quarters of 2024, well below the 10-year average of 4.4%, data from Citi showed.

Chakraborty cites this as a key factor impacting urban consumption, along with declining savings and tighter rules for personal loans.

Headline inflation has averaged 5% over the past 12 months, but food inflation has held above 8% as weather shocks elevated prices of vegetables, cereals and other essential foods. In October, retail inflation hit a 14-month high of 6.2% while food prices jumped to 10.9%.

Anecdotal data suggests retail sales rose close to 15% year-on-year during the 2024 festive season, which runs from August to November, Nomura said in a note last week, about half last year's pace.

"During this festival season, we have not spent at all," said Rajwanti Dahiya, 60, who survives on her husband's monthly pension of 30,000 Indian rupees ($356.76).

"Savings are low, barely there."

A 'SHRINKING' MIDDLE

India's central bank expects 7.2% GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 on the back of improved rural demand and a strong services sector.

Higher government investment could also support demand, said Rahul Bajoria, head of India and ASEAN economic research at Bank of America.

"If government spending kicks in, that probably does have some multiplier effects on private consumption spending as well," said Bajoria, who expects GDP growth at 6.8% in the current financial year.

Some are less optimistic with Citi and IDFC First Bank economists expecting GDP growth in the July-September quarter to miss the central bank's projected 7%, weighed by slower urban consumption.

That pessimism has hit consumer stocks with the Nifty FMCG index .NIFTYFMCG declining 13% since Oct. 1, compared with a 7.4% drop in the benchmark Nifty 50 .NSEI.

Of the FMCG index's 15 constituent firms, only one reported a pickup in sales volume growth in the September quarter.

Consumers in large cities are swapping branded items from hair oil to tea for cheaper unbranded alternatives, reflected in the first sales volume decline in 11 quarters for the foods and refreshment group at Hindustan Unilever.

"We see the growth in big city standing down, although in smaller cities and in rural the growth continues to be good," Hindustan Unilever chief executive Rohit Jawa said last month, after reporting lower than expected earnings.

Consumers are also cutting back on dining out.

Fast-food chains such as McDonald's, Burger King, Pizza Hut and KFC posted same-store sales declines, earnings showed.

While people are still coming, they are choosing cheaper meals, Rajeev Varman, CEO at Burger King operator Restaurant Brands Asia RESR.NS said after posting a 3% drop in quarterly same-store sales.

"We prefer budget-friendly stores that give good deals and discounts to manage our monthly expenditure," said 37-year old Avinash Crasto, a Mumbai marketing and sales executive who has a family of four and identifies as middle class.

($1 = 84.0640 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Praveen Paramasivam in Chennai and Shivangi Acharya in New Delhi; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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** Shares of Sapphire Foods India SAPI.NS drop 6.6% to 320 rupees

** Operator of Pizza Hut and KFC restaurants posted surprise quarterly loss

NO NEAR-TERM DEMAND PICK-UP

** Goldman Sachs ("buy", cuts PT to 400 rupees from 420 rupees) says KFC same store sales growth unlikely to recover sharply in the Dec-qtr

** Motilal Oswal ("buy", raises TP to 415 rupees from 370 rupees) does not foresee any near-term respite in profitability but expect gradual stability in growth in second half of FY

** Emkay Research ("add", raises PT to 375 rupees from 340 rupees) though, expects a turnaround in FY26; says sluggish trends in-line with broader slowdown

** Centrum ("sell", trims PT to 310 rupees from 326 rupees) also foresees "short-term challenges" from quick service restaurants (QSR) peers

(Reporting by Hritam Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

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