{"id":397891,"date":"2024-12-04T08:44:39","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T03:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=397891"},"modified":"2024-12-04T08:44:39","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T03:14:39","slug":"could-trend-following-be-a-successful-trading-strategy-part-iv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/varsity\/could-trend-following-be-a-successful-trading-strategy-part-iv","title":{"rendered":"Could Trend-Following Be A Successful Trading Strategy? (Part IV)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/varsity\/could-trend-following-be-a-successful-trading-strategy-part-iii\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">previous post<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> on trend-following used cross-correlations to pick a diverse set of assets and then split the time series to arrive at asset-specific lookback periods to power a binary on\/off signal. There are a few drawbacks to this approach:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Indian rules and regulations allow a very narrow set of assets to be traded. Being selective about assets could actually be counterproductive by adversely shrinking the universe.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Markets are dynamic. Lookback periods that work under one \u201cregime\u201d may not work in another. Trying to fine-tune static lookbacks could push us into a data-mining spiral.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Binary signals introduce an element of timing luck in our back tests.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We can fix these problems by:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Relaxing the correlation constraints by allowing most liquid assets into our universe.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Using a uniform series of lookbacks on all assets.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Use dynamic sizing based on trend-strength or volatility.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To be fair, these solutions drastically increase the bankroll required to run a diversified trend-following strategy. The discussion that follows assumes a maximum size of 10 contracts of the same notional exposure per asset.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cross-correlations on weekly time series do not tell the whole story. For example, we decided to pick one of NIFTY 50 or MIDCAP 150 based on their high weekly return correlations to each other. However, looking at annual returns paints a slightly different picture.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-397889\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Annual-Returns.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"608\" height=\"1097\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Annual-Returns.png 608w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Annual-Returns-166x300.png 166w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Annual-Returns-568x1024.png 568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 608px) 100vw, 608px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There have been years when NIFTY 50 and MIDCAP 50 were negatively correlated and there have been years when one massively outperformed the other. Why miss out on these years? The same goes for gold and silver as well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To avoid data mining, we run a 5xN SMA cross-over where N = [50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350, 400, 450, 500]. For every SMA(5) &gt; SMA(N), you go long on one contract. Post-COVID returns, assuming transaction costs of 25bps, looks something like this:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-397888\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns.png 1400w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-700x400.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A Sharpe Ratio of ~1.4 with a max drawdown less than 10% is pretty good for any strategy. Lever the 13.90% returns 2x and you get to a ~28% annualized return.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pre-COVID returns are a bit of a let down with the strategy experiencing a lost decade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-397887\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-09-19.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-09-19.png 1400w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-09-19-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-09-19-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-09-19-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-09-19-700x400.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The problem with a limited universe of assets to trend-follow is that individual assets going through a bad phase end up having an oversized impact on the strategy. Another way to frame this is that with a smaller universe, the assets you pick end up driving returns. For example, with perfect hindsight, you could drop copper and crude oil from your universe and boost performance by several points.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Post COVID:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-397886\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-post-COVID.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-post-COVID.png 1400w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-post-COVID-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-post-COVID-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-post-COVID-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-post-COVID-700x400.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Pre-COVID:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-397885\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-pre-COVID.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-pre-COVID.png 1400w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-pre-COVID-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-pre-COVID-1024x585.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-pre-COVID-768x439.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Scaled-equal-weighted-long-only-returns-pre-COVID-700x400.png 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1400px) 100vw, 1400px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you implement these strategies in the cash market using index funds or ETFs, then you will be disappointed with these return profiles. 20% drawdowns are par for the course. Why spend all this effort to reduce them and give up the upside? Diversify and chill!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trend-following strategies make sense if you are a leveraged trader and there are assets that can be accessed only in the derivatives markets like crude oil, copper, etc. Or, if avoiding drawdowns deeper than 10% is very important to you and you don\u2019t mind the trade-off.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Lesson<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: As long as you avoid data mining, there are no hard rules when it comes to trend-following. Your bankroll and asset basket dictate the strategy and outcome. Cash-and-carry investors looking for higher returns may be disappointed with trend-following strategies. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Our previous post on trend-following used cross-correlations to pick a diverse set of assets and then split the time series to arrive at asset-specific lookback periods to power a binary on\/off signal. There are a few drawbacks to this approach: Indian rules and regulations allow a very narrow set of assets to be traded. Being [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242541,"featured_media":380361,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[929,477],"tags":[838,1103],"class_list":["post-397891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","category-varsity","tag-trading-strategies","tag-trend-following"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Could Trend-Following Be A Successful Trading Strategy? 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