{"id":395355,"date":"2024-11-07T18:17:20","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T12:47:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=395355"},"modified":"2024-11-14T13:45:31","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T08:15:31","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-is-bsnl-having-its-jio-moment-maybe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-is-bsnl-having-its-jio-moment-maybe","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Is BSNL having its &#8220;Jio&#8221; moment? Maybe?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>We love IndiaDataHub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\"><em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a><em>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to IndiaDataHub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:post-content -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><\/h3>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:heading --><\/h3>\r\n<h2><b>Telecom customers are still chasing value<\/b><\/h2>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Life today is worlds apart from what it was a decade ago. Now, we have grocery apps delivering everything we think we need in just 10 minutes, OTT platforms streaming our favorite sports matches or movies at the click of a button, and a wealth of free, insightful education through videos, podcasts, and blogs. It\u2019s almost surreal to look back and think, &#8220;When did all this really start changing?&#8221;. I may be wrong, but one date always stands out: September 5th, 2016.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That was the day Jio made its grand debut, rolling out free data, unlimited talk time, and no roaming charges. What followed was chaos in the telecom industry. Customers were thrilled; competitors? Not so much. Jio\u2019s offer was so affordable, people genuinely wondered if it was too good to be true.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Fast forward eight years, and there\u2019s another shift on the horizon, though maybe not quite on Jio\u2019s scale. This time, it\u2019s BSNL making moves. While private telcos have been hiking prices by <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneycontrol.com\/news\/business\/companies\/telecom-minister-scindia-defends-tariff-hikes-says-telcos-deserve-return-on-capex-12810100.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">10% to 27%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, BSNL\u2019s kept its prices steady, pulling in value-conscious customers who just aren\u2019t ready to pay more.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Is BSNL having its own \u201cJio moment\u201d? Well, maybe it\u2019s too soon to call it that. But here\u2019s what we know (a) BSNL has kept prices down, and (b) it\u2019s managed to gain quite some market share because of it.\u00a0 This is the second month in a row that BSNL gained subscribers\u2014a feat it hasn\u2019t pulled off in two years. After nearly 3 million new subscribers in July, BSNL added another 2.5 million in August, boosting its base by over 6% in just two months. Where\u2019s this growth coming from? Private telcos, who are losing ground as BSNL muscles in.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">BSNL isn\u2019t just relying on low prices, though. The Ministry of Communication recently announced that BSNL has installed over <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/telecom.economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/industry\/bsnl-deploys-more-than-50000-sites-nationwide-for-4g-services-ministry-of-communications\/114807385\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">50,000 sites<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> as part of its 4G rollout. These telecom sites are the large areas that accommodate the equipment used in telecom networks. And BSNL\u2019s goal? 1 lakh sites by mid-2025 when it officially launches 4G. To give you some context, Jio is running its operations on <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ijhssi.org\/papers\/vol11(8)\/G11084953.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1.36 la<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">kh such sites. So it\u2019s pretty decent.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As if that wasn\u2019t enough to get attention, BSNL\u2019s new logo and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lightreading.com\/2g-3g-4g\/india-s-bsnl-goes-for-new-logo-and-new-initiatives-to-boost-subscriber-base\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">rebranding<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> made it loud and clear: it\u2019s ready to play hardball. Is this a true turnaround? Or just a momentary uptick? Only time will tell. But after playing second fiddle to private telcos for a long time, BSNL\u2019s steady prices have won it a lot of ground.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07e9b169-3092-414b-840b-5b74eaf64804_2352x1561.png\" \/> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In August alone, Jio, Airtel, and Vodafone Idea shed 4 million, 2.4 million, and 1.9 million subscribers, respectively. That\u2019s a total industry loss of 5.8 million subscribers\u2014more than BSNL\u2019s gain.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Meanwhile, the broadband scene is a bit more predictable. Fixed-line services are growing as expected, and August saw 7 lakh new subscribers join the ranks\u2014the biggest monthly bump since March.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F45bd1506-1430-46c1-9a3e-332ce0597bfe_2342x1549.png\" \/><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now, here\u2019s the insight: the highest growth in fixed-line subscribers came from Bihar, a region with historically one of the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/trai.gov.in\/sites\/default\/files\/PR_No.78of2024_0.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">lowest teledensity<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. In the last year, Bihar added over 4 lakh fixed-line subscribers, marking a 50% increase. This is the largest of any region nationwide. And since broadband growth tends to follow the demand for high-speed internet, this shift is pretty important. Bihar, one of India\u2019s least economically developed states, is showing that high-speed internet might just be the next staple in India, right up there with <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">roti, kapda, makaan\u2026 aur internet<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:heading -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><\/h3>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:heading --><\/h3>\r\n<h2><b>The Story Behind India\u2019s Credit-Deposit Shift<\/b><\/h2>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Remember when the RBI Chief was sounding the alarm because loans (credit) were growing faster than deposits? That had economists and media houses all worked up, diving deep into debates on what it meant for the economy. And yes, we hopped on that bandwagon too, sharing our own take in one of our <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thedailybriefing.substack.com\/p\/the-death-of-bank-deposits-a-new?utm_source=publication-search\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Daily Brief episodes<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But you see, things are starting to change now. After nearly 30 months, banks\u2019 deposit growth is finally catching up with credit growth. Now, this could\u2019ve happened in one of two ways: either deposit growth picked up, or credit growth cooled down. Right now, it\u2019s largely the latter.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ff7362b-ab64-4ad3-9986-5e9bee71de7c_2349x1548.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">After the COVID lockdowns lifted, credit growth picked up pace. Credit was growing at over 17% year-on-year, while deposits were inching up at just 9% at one point in time. By the end of 2022, the gap had widened to 8%, but now it\u2019s shrunk to less than 1% as of early October. Why? Credit growth has slowed to below 13% YoY, the lowest we\u2019ve seen in over two years.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba6009ff-5614-413d-94fc-894a60da982d_2343x1547.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">You know what this resulted in? The incremental credit-deposit ratio has fallen from over 100% last year to under 85% as of early October. What this means is that for every \u20b9100 banks receive in new deposits, they\u2019re now lending out only \u20b985. Compare that to late 2022, when banks were lending out \u20b9130 for every \u20b9100 in deposits.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now, it\u2019s worth noting that overall deposits in the banking system were still higher than loans. But incrementally\u2014meaning, in terms of the new money flowing in\u2014credit was growing faster than deposits for a while. Banks were stretching the new deposits they received, lending more aggressively relative to the fresh money coming in, which put a strain on the system. This recent shift shows that banks are becoming more cautious, aligning their lending with the pace of new deposits coming in.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">How did we get here? Thank the RBI.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The RBI\u2019s attempts to close the credit-deposit growth gap might finally be paying off. It\u2019s tricky to say what\u2019s really driving the shift, but a few things could be at play here. The RBI\u2019s gentle nudges\u2014what they call \u201cmoral suasion\u201d\u2014probably encouraged banks to focus more on pulling in deposits. Plus, their choice to hold off on cutting rates sooner might have made borrowing a little less tempting, nudging people to save instead. Add to that some regulatory changes, like bumping up risk weightings on consumer loans and setting stricter liquidity rules (LCR norms), and it seems these moves might have helped slow down credit growth. But, honestly, it\u2019s tough to say for sure if any one thing did the trick.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:heading -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><\/h3>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:heading --><\/h3>\r\n<h2><b>Indians\u2019 Love for Travel is Keeping Remittances High<\/b><\/h2>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It seems India\u2019s love for overseas travel isn\u2019t slowing down anytime soon. August recorded the second-highest monthly outward remittances by Indians for international travel. Indians sent over $2 billion abroad. This is just 1% lower than the all time high outflows of August last year.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb5191e48-e635-4a19-8d69-8f590fd5daa0_2343x1565.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The first five months of this year alone saw Indian travelers sending $7.5 billion overseas for their travel expenses. While that\u2019s a slight dip compared to last year, it\u2019s worth noting that 2023\u2019s numbers were driven higher by the revised Tax Collected at Source (TCS) rules. This tax is collected at the time of payment, adding a certain percentage of tax to the transaction. So last year people were front-loading their remittances to avoid the TCS.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So, why is demand still high? Indians have a strong post-pandemic urge to explore. The trend is clear: Indians aren\u2019t cutting back on overseas travel, and the remittance numbers show it.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:heading -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><\/h3>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n<h3><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:heading --><\/h3>\r\n<h2><b>India\u2019s FDI: Money In, Money Out<\/b><\/h2>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">India\u2019s foreign direct investment (FDI) kept climbing in August, bringing in $8.6 billion\u2014the highest in a few years and a 75% jump from last August. So far this year, FDI inflows total $36 billion, which is up 33% compared to last year. Clearly, global investors are excited about India\u2019s growth potential.<\/span> \u00a0<\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0df748be-e016-4b10-9804-cfbbaa103a3d_2351x1550.png\" \/><\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But it\u2019s not just about money coming in\u2014Indian companies are also making big investments abroad. August was the second month in a row with outward FDI above $2 billion, adding up to $8.7 billion in the first five months. This\u00a0 is almost 70% more than last year. And if you count March, when outward FDI was over $3 billion, Indian companies have nearly doubled their overseas investments in just six months.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It shows that Indian businesses are not only attracting investment but also looking out to explore global opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><!-- \/wp:heading -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph --><\/span> That\u2019s all for this week, folks!<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the second month straight, BSNL gained market share from private telcos. A real turnaround or just a blip?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242548,"featured_media":395354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[810,655,770,656,891,680,862],"class_list":["post-395355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-credit","tag-foreign-direct-investment","tag-its-the-economy-stupid","tag-liberalised-remittance-scheme","tag-loan-deposit-ratio","tag-remittance","tag-wireless-telecom"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Is BSNL having its &quot;Jio&quot; moment? Maybe? &#8211; Z-Connect by Zerodha<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For the second month straight, BSNL gained market share from private telcos. A real turnaround or just a blip?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-is-bsnl-having-its-jio-moment-maybe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Is BSNL having its &quot;Jio&quot; moment? Maybe?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For the second month straight, BSNL gained market share from private telcos. A real turnaround or just a blip?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-is-bsnl-having-its-jio-moment-maybe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Z-Connect by Zerodha\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/zerodha.social\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-07T12:47:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-14T08:15:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/economy-stupid4.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kashish Kapoor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@zerodhaonline\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@zerodhaonline\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kashish Kapoor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-is-bsnl-having-its-jio-moment-maybe\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-is-bsnl-having-its-jio-moment-maybe\",\"name\":\"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! 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