{"id":394362,"date":"2024-10-28T11:40:21","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T06:10:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=394362"},"modified":"2024-11-25T11:28:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T05:58:06","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-rupee-is-holding-its-ground","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-rupee-is-holding-its-ground","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s the economy, stupid! Rupee is holding its ground"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p><em>We love IndiaDataHub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\"><em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a><em>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to IndiaDataHub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>Prefer watching over reading? Here\u2019s the video for you!<\/p>\r\n<p><a href=\"<iframe width=\"100%\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Ff_tgRuLsYE\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/a><\/p>\r\n<h2 id=\"h-strange-things-afoot-in-telecom\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The rupee is holding strong, unlike what others think!<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you\u2019ve been even casually following macro news, you\u2019ve probably seen the headlines: <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cRupee crosses 84 against the dollar for the first time!\u201d<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Big deal, right? The rupee has hit a new \u201call-time low.\u201d But wait&#8230; how can something be at its <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">lowest<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> when the number you\u2019re seeing is <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the highest<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> it\u2019s ever been? Yeah, it sounds like an oxymoron\u2014but it\u2019s not.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Here\u2019s the thing: when the rupee-dollar number on your screen goes up, it means you now need more rupees to buy a dollar. That\u2019s because the value of the rupee has gone down. In simpler terms, the rupee has lost some of its purchasing power\u2014it takes <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">more<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> rupees to exchange for just <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">one<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> dollar.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Think of it this way: there\u2019s so much supply of rupees in the market relative to dollars that people are okay with paying more rupees to get their hands on those scarce dollars. And that\u2019s what economists call <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">rupee depreciation<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u2014when the rupee\u2019s value weakens, and you need more of it to buy the same amount of foreign currency.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So, the rupee has depreciated to its lowest level ever\u2014bad news, right? Well, not exactly.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Instead of just focusing on the absolute value, let\u2019s zoom out and look at the long-term trend to understand what\u2019s really happening.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If you plot the rupee against the dollar over time, you\u2019d notice the line trending up towards the top-right corner of the chart. But if you zoom in a bit, you\u2019ll see something interesting\u2014the line is getting less squiggly, and is slowly flattening.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea3129b5-eb47-4411-993d-ce1eea0b60bd_2342x1546.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">What does this mean? The rupee has actually become more stable against the dollar. It doesn\u2019t swing wildly like it used to. Even with the recent spike above 84, the rupee has depreciated by less than 1% over the past year. On a two-year basis, the depreciation is under 2%.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Now, here\u2019s why this is a big deal: over the past two decades, the median two-year depreciation of the rupee was around 7%.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This trend of reduced depreciation didn\u2019t happen overnight. Back in January, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/economy\/finance\/rate-of-rupee-depreciation-coming-down-piyush-goyal\/articleshow\/106820222.cms?from=mdr\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">pointed out<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> that the rupee&#8217;s depreciation rate, which used to hover between 3-3.5% annually, has now slowed to around 1.5% per year. He even suggested that by the end of the next decade, the rupee could depreciate by as little as 0.5-0.75% per year\u2014and might even start appreciating against the dollar.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">However, while the rupee is holding steady against the dollar, it\u2019s struggling elsewhere. Over the past year, the India Data Hub INR Index\u2014which measures the rupee\u2019s performance against five major currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CNY)\u2014has fallen by almost 3%.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff85229e3-7483-4319-9a85-0eeb1bcc0688_2345x1552.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The real concern? A 5% depreciation against the Chinese yuan (CNY). This matters because when the rupee weakens against the yuan, imports from China become more expensive. And given that China is India\u2019s largest trading partner, with a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/economy\/news\/india-in-trade-deficit-with-9-of-top-10-trading-partners-in-2023-24-data-124052600247_1.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">$85 billion trade deficit<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> last year, a weaker rupee could make imported goods more costly, fueling inflation.<\/span><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 id=\"h-exports-decline\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What\u2019s up? Inflation! Or is it?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">CPI inflation jumped from 3.65% in August to 5.5% in September, with food inflation taking most of the blame. While part of this spike can be attributed to the base effect, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/cons-products\/fmcg\/fmcg-demand-sluggish-in-urban-india-on-account-of-food-inflation-commodity-costs-nestle-chairman\/articleshow\/114469891.cms?from=mdr\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">industry veterans<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbctv18.com\/economy\/temporary-spike-in-food-inflation-expected-to-stabilise-soon-ramesh-chand-rbi-cpi-mpc-19495886.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">government officials<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> point to a sharp increase in fresh vegetable prices as the main culprit. Heavy rains and supply disruptions drove the prices of essentials like tomatoes and onions up by 35.9% compared to the previous month.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As a result, food inflation went from 5.3% in August to 8.4% in September. Meanwhile, core CPI\u2014which excludes food prices\u2014remained largely stable. However, with the rupee weakening, particularly against the Chinese yuan (as discussed earlier), there\u2019s growing concern that core inflation could gradually move higher in the coming months.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0b63c5e4-24ab-4f96-99a9-c0f381de28d4_2344x1554.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The inflation story abroad isn\u2019t very different. Globally, inflation has been trending downward in recent months. In the Euro Area, HICP inflation\u2014the eurozone\u2019s version of CPI\u2014fell to a 41-month low of 1.7% in September, dipping below the European Central Bank\u2019s (ECB) 2% medium-term target. In response, the ECB cut its policy rate by 25 basis points.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The UK also saw inflation ease, dropping to 1.7% in September from 2.2% in August\u2014its lowest level since April 2021. Similarly, Japan and China reported a slowdown in inflation during September. As inflation cools worldwide, central banks are adjusting their interest rates accordingly\u2014except India.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7a148098-4344-44c1-bd4d-77b7ffba551f_2346x1545.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The RBI Chief remains cautious, stating that cutting rates now would be <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/rates-bonds\/interest-rate-cut-this-stage-would-be-premature-india-cenbank-chief-says-2024-10-18\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">premature<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Although inflation is expected to ease in the coming months, the central bank will only consider rate cuts once it is confident that inflation will stay within the target range and not just dip temporarily. For now, the RBI is committed to a wait-and-watch strategy, avoiding of any preemptive action.<\/span><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h2 id=\"h-the-fed-cuts-rates\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trade numbers converged this month<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">India\u2019s goods trade is painting an interesting picture. Import growth has been slowing for the third month in a row\u2014dropping from 7.4% in July to 3.3% in August, and now just 1.6% in September. Exports, too, are sluggish, increasing by only 0.5% in September. However, this is an improvement from the 9% drop in August and the 1.5% decline in July.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F29950d5f-6bb5-4a90-a036-853a81a60b15_2340x1540.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A key factor behind the recent moderation in exports is the sharp fall in petroleum exports, which dropped 25% YoY in September. Interestingly, if we exclude petroleum exports, total exports actually grew by 7%, highlighting just how significant petroleum products are to India\u2019s overall export basket.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So, if petroleum is dragging down growth, what&#8217;s driving exports?<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For the past few years, electronic goods have been the fastest-growing export category. However, even this segment has lost some steam, with growth slowing to 8% YoY in September, following 7% growth in August. Meanwhile, exports of engineering goods, textiles, plastics, and chemicals grew at a faster pace than electronics in September.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc970492-d785-48a7-813b-90eb4b7c406e_2347x1557.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The combination of slower import growth and a modest recovery in exports has shrunk the trade deficit significantly. From $30 billion in August, it fell by over 30% to $21 billion in September.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\r\n\r\n<\/h2>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\r\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\r\n\r\n<\/h2>\r\n<h2 id=\"h-the-fed-cuts-rates\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">An update on China<\/h2>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">China, once one of the world\u2019s fastest-growing economies, is now facing tough times, and it seems like its days of rapid expansion are behind it. The GDP numbers reflect this shift, with the economy growing by 4.6% YoY in the September quarter\u2014a five-quarter low.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For perspective, from 1992 to 2019, China\u2019s economy consistently grew at an average rate of easily over 6% per year. But since then, and particularly after the disruptions caused by COVID-19, the Chinese economy has been hit by one setback after another. The latest\u2014and perhaps most damaging\u2014blow is the ongoing slump in the real estate sector, which has become the biggest drag on growth.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The real estate sector has now contracted for three consecutive quarters, with everything from sales to new construction on the decline and inventories piling up. Given that the sector accounts for nearly <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/News\/Articles\/2024\/02\/02\/cf-chinas-real-estate-sector-managing-the-medium-term-slowdown#:~:text=accounting%20for%20as%20much%20as%2020%20percent%20of%20activity.\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">20%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> of China\u2019s economic activity, its downturn is having a significant impact on the country\u2019s overall GDP growth.<\/span><\/p>\r\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6daaf3f1-205d-43e1-b0c4-c542db7e771d_2339x1549.png\" \/><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>That\u2019s all for this week, folks!<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The rupee is still weakening against the US dollar, but at its slowest pace in history over the past two years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242548,"featured_media":394365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[626,583,253,596,770],"class_list":["post-394362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-balance-of-payments","tag-china","tag-currency","tag-inflation","tag-its-the-economy-stupid"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It&#039;s the economy, stupid! Rupee is holding its ground &#8211; Z-Connect by Zerodha<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The rupee is still weakening against the US dollar, but at its slowest pace in history over the past two years.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-rupee-is-holding-its-ground\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It&#039;s the economy, stupid! Rupee is holding its ground\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The rupee is still weakening against the US dollar, but at its slowest pace in history over the past two years.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-rupee-is-holding-its-ground\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Z-Connect by Zerodha\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/zerodha.social\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-28T06:10:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-25T05:58:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/economy-stupid5.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kashish Kapoor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@zerodhaonline\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@zerodhaonline\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kashish Kapoor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-rupee-is-holding-its-ground\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-rupee-is-holding-its-ground\",\"name\":\"It's the economy, stupid! 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