{"id":387510,"date":"2024-08-21T12:20:31","date_gmt":"2024-08-21T06:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=387510"},"modified":"2024-08-21T12:20:32","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T06:50:32","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-is-india-working","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-is-india-working","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Is India working?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We love IndiaDataHub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to IndiaDataHub. All mistakes, of course, are our own. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

The complete jobs picture<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Are Indians working enough? Are there enough jobs in the economy to support all our livelihoods? What are we doing well, and where do we need things to get better? As politicians fight and rankle over the state of Indian employment, here\u2019s how the numbers actually pan out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s begin with the \u2018unemployment rate<\/strong>\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A country\u2019s unemployment rate is a measure of all the people \u201cin the labour force\u201d without a job. That qualifier \u2014 that they\u2019re in the \u201clabour force\u201d \u2014 is all-important. The unemployment rate doesn\u2019t measure the percentage of our total population<\/em> that isn\u2019t working. It limits itself to those who actively seek work. By this criterion, you\u2019re only unemployed if you\u2019re out there looking for work, but haven\u2019t found any. If you\u2019d like<\/em> some work, but are actually just lying around at home, discouraged, instead of applying anywhere \u2014 you aren\u2019t part of the labour force, and so, aren\u2019t counted amongst India\u2019s unemployed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s unemployment rate in the June quarter, in urban areas, stood at 6.7%. That’s where it’s been for a while. Our unemployment rate was the same a quarter ago, and it was the same a year ago.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Urban<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, one may be unemployed because of how weak an economy is. But one might also be unemployed for wholly unrelated reasons. If you\u2019ve just started your career, for instance, employers have no reason to trust you, because you barely have a track record to rely on. If you\u2019re moving cities, or industries, you might generally find it hard to immediately land a job. You might have high standards for the work you want to do, and might reject most jobs that come your way because they don\u2019t promise you a sense of personal satisfaction. When someone\u2019s unemployed for natural, non-macro reasons, it\u2019s called \u2018frictional unemployment<\/strong>\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Young workers are hit the hardest by frictional unemployment. That\u2019s when everyone\u2019s trying to prove their mettle, while also trying to find what they really want from their working life. You\u2019re bound to see more unemployment than average in this cohort. But here, too, there\u2019s good news. Over the last year, unemployment among young people (that is, in the age group 15-29) has dropped by almost one full percent \u2014 from 17.6% to 16.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

With that, let\u2019s take a step back. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember how the unemployment rate only measures people within the labour force <\/em>that don\u2019t have a job? A natural question, then, is: what\u2019s happening to the labour force as a whole? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, things are looking up! Our \u2018labour force participation rate<\/strong>\u2019 \u2014 the proportion of working-age adults in our labour force \u2014 is increasing steadily. For over two quarters, it\u2019s been over 50%. In other words, for half a year now, more than half of all working age people in India are actually trying to work. That might not seem like a big deal, but this magical 50% number has been really hard for us to reach. Similarly, our \u2018worker population ratio<\/strong>\u2019 (WPR) \u2014 the proportion of working age adults that actually have work \u2014 has been going up by ~1% a year. And despite all of this, our unemployment rate has stayed the same.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think of it like this: if Virat Kohli made 50% of India\u2019s runs in a match, but India was bowled out for a paltry 82 runs, Kohli made a decent but unexciting 41 runs. His innings was a small silver lining in a terrible match for India. But if India made 200 runs, and Kohli hit 50% of those, he probably played a beautiful innings to get to a magnificent century. The point is: percentages only tell you so much of the story. The overall size of the pie matters.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

~94% of India\u2019s labour force was employed last year, and ~94% of India\u2019s labour force is employed this year. But crucially, India\u2019s labour force has become bigger<\/em>. To keep its unemployment rate exactly where it was, India had to create a lot of new jobs over the last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Worker<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the biggest challenge of India\u2019s workforce is its terrible gender ratio. There\u2019s always been a massive gap between the proportion of Indian men and women that work. In the June quarter, more than 70% of Indian men were working, compared to just 23% of Indian women. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Worrying as this trend is, thankfully, there\u2019s been a slight improvement over the last couple of years. Something<\/em> seems to have happened over the pandemic that has nudged a lot more women to work. June was the eight straight quarter when women\u2019s labour force participation increased far quicker than that for men. Since June 2019, the WPR for men has gone up by 3%, while the WPR for women is up 6%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Gender<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

There’s more white collar work<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The job portal Naukri.com releases a \u2018Naukri Jobspeak Index,\u2019 tracking the number of postings on its website every month. Of course, not everyone posts jobs on Naukri.com \u2014 by and large, it\u2019s only meant for white collar employers, and not all of them use it either. But while its absolute numbers might throw you off a little, directionally, it’s a good way to how things are going.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month, postings on the website grew by 11%. This is the first time they were up since late 2023. Once again, this signals a stronger urban labour market than we\u2019ve seen in a while. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Naukri<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Rural job markets are weak<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Everything we\u2019ve discussed so far was for urban markets. In rural India, however, things are a little different. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For one, wages are growing slower than they used to. In June, rural men saw their wages go up by just 5%, the slowest rate in two years. Rural women are slightly better off, having seen stronger wage growth in recent times. However they, too, saw the rise in their wages drop to a one-year low of 7.5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Rural<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One big problem is a severe decline in the work provided under NREGA \u2014 which has been falling by a massive 30%, year-on-year, over the last couple of months. This has hit rural incomes badly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

At long last, inflation falls!<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After a protracted battle against prices that simply refused to stop rising, inflation fell dramatically, and suddenly, in July: to 3.5% \u2014 below the 4% that the RBI targets \u2014 from 5.1% just a month ago. This is the lowest inflation reading we\u2019ve had in a few years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t get too excited just yet, though. This dramatic fall owes itself, at least in part, to a \u2018base effect<\/strong>\u2019. It won\u2019t stay for long. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

See, there were vegetable shortages last July. Vegetable prices are always volatile, because they depend heavily on the weather. After intense heat-waves and a bad monsoon last year, vegetable prices \u2014 and tomato prices in particular \u2014 spiked last July. This year too, vegetable prices were slightly higher in July than in June, but the rise wasn’t nearly as severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To calculate inflation, you basically compare prices from a month with prices in the same month from the previous year. For July 2024\u2019s inflation, you compare July 2024 prices with those in July 2023. Now, if July 2023 prices were unreasonably high, prices from July 2024 would look benign in comparison, and you\u2019d get an inflation number that\u2019s deceptively low. That\u2019s the \u2018base effect\u2019: when the base number you compare something against is an anomaly, it distorts the whole comparison.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s do this comparison again, but after ignoring all vegetable prices. There\u2019s still a drop in inflation from June to July, but this time around, it\u2019s a lot less dramatic: from 3.5% to 3.3%. Clearly, the inflation picture has improved, but the improvement is less pronounced than it appears.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation,<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, how does the RBI see this all? Does less inflation indicate a cut in repo rates? Not so fast. The RBI has fixed its attention on challenges to India\u2019s monetary stability. It wants our economy to grow, but not so fast that it creates problems. Inflation is only one such problem. But, as we wrote last week, there are other problems: specifically, the unchecked growth in credit \u2014 particularly personal loans \u2014 could create big problems for our economy if we aren\u2019t careful.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s only if the economy slows down, or lending cools down, that there\u2019ll be a serious case for rate cuts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s all for this week, folks!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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