{"id":386881,"date":"2024-08-14T12:26:11","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T06:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=386881"},"modified":"2024-08-14T12:26:12","modified_gmt":"2024-08-14T06:56:12","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-repo-rate-redux","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-repo-rate-redux","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Repo rate redux"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>We love IndiaDataHub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\"><em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a><em>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to IndiaDataHub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-another-meeting-with-no-cuts\"><strong>Another meeting with no cuts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The RBI\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee met last week. And yet again, it decided to keep its repo rate exactly where it was. The repo rate is, in a sense, the cost of money for the economy. It\u2019s the interest rate at which banks can get money from the RBI. When it\u2019s low, banks borrow indiscriminately and loan money out for cheap. When it\u2019s high, they hold off. Now, the RBI\u2019s repo rate has been relatively high \u2014 at 6.5%, in fact \u2014 since last February. All commercial loans in the economy are effectively given at a higher rate than this. The RBI has kept the rate up there once again.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn\u2019t the unanimous view of the committee. <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-to-cut-or-not-to-cut\">Like the last time<\/a>, two of its members \u2014 Jayanth Varma and Ashima Goyal \u2014 were in favour of a cut. They were outvoted 4-2, though, which is why the RBI is keeping rates unchanged. Its policy stance, which signals how it might behave going ahead, also remains unchanged. (Officially, it\u2019s stance is \u201c<em>remain focused on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target, while supporting growth<\/em>,\u201d which is a complicated way of saying \u201cwe\u2019ll keep rates high, but not so high that growth suffers\u201d.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/1-1024x675.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386887\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/1-1024x675.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/1-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/1-768x506.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/1.jpg 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The RBI is basically walking a tightrope. On the one hand, it needs to make sure there isn\u2019t too much money in the system, or it\u2019ll drive up prices. On the other, it needs to ensure there isn\u2019t too little money in the system, or the economy will stagnate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This equation is shifting slowly for the RBI. It thinks India is growing slower than it anticipated. For the first quarter of this year, it downgraded its growth projections by 0.2%, from 7.3% to 7.1%. If the decline continues, it might push the RBI to reconsider its stance. Inflation, however, remains a concern. The RBI sharply increased its expectations for inflation in the second quarter of the year \u2014 from 3.8% to 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Clearly, there isn\u2019t enough that pushes the RBI to make a change just yet.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"677\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/2-1024x677.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386888\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/2-1024x677.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/2-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/2-768x508.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/2.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-nightmare-case\"><strong>The nightmare case<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The RBI\u2019s main job is to control inflation. In doing so, however, it follows a key directive: <em>it has to ensure<\/em> <em>monetary stability,<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-the-real-job-of-the-rbi\">as we\u2019ve mentioned before<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is clearly something RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has been thinking hard about. In his August statement, he mentioned three major risks to our monetary stability:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>One, banks are finding it hard to gather funds<\/strong>. As other asset classes \u2014 such as mutual funds \u2014 become more attractive, people aren\u2019t keeping their savings with banks. Banks, therefore, are being pushed to tap into other sources of money \u2014 like non-retail deposits, or other borrowings \u2014 which are more expensive, and perhaps riskier as well. If things go wrong, this can trigger serious liquidity problems, leaving banks unable to pay their own lenders even when they have enough assets on paper.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Two, unsecured personal loans have been growing. <\/strong>That is, ordinary people are increasingly living on borrowed money, without putting any collateral at stake. The RBI has taken some steps to curb this \u2014 and indeed, the growth of these loans has moderated in places. But there are many segments where these loans continue to grow. In a crisis, this may push many regular people to default on their loans and become insolvent \u2014 causing financial distress for people that are the least capable of handling it. Meanwhile, without collateral, banks will be left high-and-dry as well.\u00a0\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Three, collateralised lending is growing in an unchecked manner<\/strong>. These are loans people take after keeping something valuable, like their home or gold, as collateral. The problem, unfortunately, is that many banks aren\u2019t adhering to the regulations on this \u2014 for instance, they aren\u2019t ensuring that their collateral is large enough to cover any default.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>At the root of all these problems is too much credit. To Governor Das, banks are giving away too many loans in an unchecked manner, which could create many major problems for our economy. This makes its decision on rate cuts more complicated. If the RBI cuts its repo rate, borrowing money will become even more attractive, and these problems will grow worse. Meanwhile, as more money enters the economy, other assets will go up in price, pulling even more people away from keeping money with their bank.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, despite everything, the RBI may choose to stick with the <em>status quo<\/em>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-private-auto-sales-recover-commercial-vehicles-still-lag\"><strong>Private auto sales recover, commercial vehicles still lag<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For a couple of months, automobile sales were down in the dumps. Thankfully, they seemed to recover in July. Before we go any further, though, here\u2019s why they\u2019re important, as we wrote <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-of-lungis-and-february-numbers\">back in March<\/a>:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cPeople always need vehicles. But vehicles are huge purchases, not made on a whim. People buy them when they have money to spare and feel confident that things look good in the foreseeable future. As a whole, then, Indian automobile sales tell us how good Indians feel about their economic prospects.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>July saw a strong rebound in sales of personal vehicles. People bought 10% more cars (including utility vehicles) and 17% more two-wheelers than they did last June.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, commercial vehicles haven\u2019t yet recovered to the same degree. Tractor sales have declined once again \u2014 by a massive 13% against last July. Goods vehicles also saw a meagre 3% growth year-on-year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"680\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3-1024x680.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3-768x510.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/3.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-renewables-power-on\"><strong>Renewables power on<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In July, power generation grew slower than it had in recent months \u2014 at a 5-month low of 7.5% above last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The twist, though, lies in renewables, which are at a 5-month high. Power generation through renewables was 14% higher than last year. In all, renewables made for a record 16% of all power generated in India. That\u2019s the highest share it\u2019s ever had.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"959\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/4-1024x674.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386890\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/4-1024x674.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/4-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/4-768x506.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/4.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-rising-reserves\"><strong>Rising reserves<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>India\u2019s foreign exchange reserves are up again. They touched US$ 675 billion in the week ending on August 2, rising by US$ 8 billion through the week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-what-do-we-do-with-all-this-money\">As we wrote recently<\/a>, though, increasing one\u2019s foreign reserves comes at a cost:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>Where does the RBI buy foreign currency? From banks and financial institutions. If you\u2019re exporting something to Portugal, say, and get paid in Euros, your bank will change it to Rupees for you. Then, it can hold on to those Euros, and sell them to the RBI if asked. When the RBI buys that foreign currency, it gives the bank Rupees.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>In doing so, the RBI adds more money to the system. The bank can lend that money out to someone, from where it can enter the economy. Guess what happens next? We\u2019re back to our old favourite in this series: inflation.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>That\u2019s happening at this very moment. Since the start of this month, money market liquidity is in surplus. That is, there\u2019s excess money in the system. Banks, for instance, are lending to each other at rates lower than the RBI\u2019s repo rate. They only do that when they have extra money lying around.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>India has added $30 billion to its foreign exchange reserves in 2024. A lot of this money is finding its way into the economy. Money market liquidity is in a surplus. Over the last month, it has averaged at \u20b9 (-)1410 billion \u2014 that is, banks have almost US$ 17 million more than they need in the short term. This is the highest liquidity in more than a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1024x682.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386891\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/5.jpg 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This, along with expectations of a rate cut by the US Fed, has pushed down bond yields. Before we carry on, let\u2019s take a detour to see what this means.<br><br>See, when someone\u2019s issuing a bond, they fix the price at which it\u2019s first sold, and the price at which it\u2019ll be redeemed. Everything else depends on the market. If I\u2019m selling you a bond, I\u2019ll tell you something like: you can buy this at 100 bucks, and three years from now, I\u2019ll pay whoever\u2019s holding the bond 130 bucks. If you buy it, in a sense, you\u2019ve loaned out 100 bucks at a ~9.14% interest rate.<br><br>Now, let\u2019s say, one year on, you learn something horrible about my financial health, and you\u2019re worried that I\u2019ll never pay you back. Instead of worrying for another two years, you try selling the bond for whatever you can get. You find someone who\u2019ll pay you 90 bucks for the bond, and salvage a decent bit of your invested money. But think of what they gain: if I pay them at the time of redemption, they\u2019ve put in 90 bucks, and received 130 in just two years. In a sense, they\u2019ve made a two year loan of 90 bucks, at ~20% interest.<br><br>Take another case: let\u2019s say there\u2019s a terrible bear market immediately after you buy the bond, and people start looking for anywhere that they can still park their money without losing it to inflation. And so, one year into your purchase, someone\u2019s willing to pay you 115 bucks for your bond. You\u2019ve earned a neat 15% return within just a year. At the time of redemption, two years thereafter, they\u2019ll get 130 bucks for the 115 they put in. They\u2019ve effectively given a 115 buck loan, at an interest rate of ~6.32%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You see, in other words, what you pay for a bond determines how good the returns are. The \u2018yield\u2019 of a bond \u2014 the interest you get \u2014 is inversely proportional to the price a bond is selling for in the market.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When banks have a lot of extra money to spare, they start buying government bonds. At the same time, America is cutting interest rates, so people are looking elsewhere for some return \u2014 including Indian government bonds. With all these new buyers, the price of the bonds is going up. Conversely, their yield is coming down:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The yield on 3-month government securities (i.e. government securities that can be redeemed in three months) has fallen to 6.5% \u2014 the lowest since early 2023.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The yield on 10-year government securities has fallen below 7% for the first time in more than a year.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, the repo rate sets the baseline for interest that one expects. It\u2019s practically the cost of money in the economy. If you\u2019re investing your money <em>anywhere at all<\/em>, you\u2019re taking some risk, and you probably want to be compensated for it. So, you\u2019re probably looking for a return that\u2019s higher than the cost of money. This is why government bonds are usually a little more expensive than the repo rate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which is why it\u2019s interesting that the yield on 3-month G-secs is at 6.50% \u2014 which is also the repo rate. It\u2019s as though investors are buying G-secs with no risk premium at all. When this happens, it\u2019s usually because people expect rates to fall soon. It looks like the markets are gearing up for a cut in the repo rate.<br><br>But, from what the RBI\u2019s saying, that doesn\u2019t seem likely at all.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"679\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6-1024x679.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386892\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6-1024x679.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6-768x509.jpg 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/6.jpg 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-elsewhere-in-inflation\"><strong>Elsewhere in inflation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After a long time when people refused to buy anything and prices stayed flat, China\u2019s finally got some inflation going. The country\u2019s CPI went up slightly \u2014 to 0.5% in July, from 0.2% in June. Here are the details:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The prices of food, tobacco and alcohol shifted marginally: by 0.2%. Meat, though, was an outlier. Livestock prices were up by 4.9%, while pork prices rose 20.4% since last year.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Other supplies rose in price by 4.0%.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Meanwhile, the prices of services, education, culture and entertainment went up by 1.7%.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s exports have grown a little slower than experts thought they would \u2014 at ~7% over last year. Meanwhile, its imports have also surged by 7% year-on-year. As a result, its trade surplus has declined slightly \u2014 to $85 billion, from nearly $100 billion last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/7-1024x681.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-386893\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/7-1024x681.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/7-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/7-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/7.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, <em>Turkey\u2019s inflation is finally dropping<\/em>! Turkey\u2019s going through a prolonged economic nightmare, when prices were climbing by more than 70%. At that rate, if your lunch cost 100 Lira today, it would cost twice as much \u2014 despite no improvement whatsoever \u2014 by December 2025. In July, Turkey\u2019s inflation fell by 10% from June \u2014 to 62%. (For context, India\u2019s <em>total <\/em>inflation hasn\u2019t crossed 10% in more than a decade.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkish prices are still rising at a dramatic rate. It\u2019s only that the rate of price rise has come down. Even if it brings its inflation back into a normal range \u2014 as President Erdogan has promised by the end of the year \u2014 once prices rise, they rarely fall again. Unless Turkey sees an equally dramatic <em>deflationary<\/em> episode in the future, the new, higher prices will probably get locked in forever. The low prices of the past will not return again.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This episode came about because President Erdogan decided to go against conventional economic wisdom \u2014 pioneering \u201cErdoganomics,\u201d an experiment where Turkey tried fighting inflation by flooding the economy with money. Naturally, that didn\u2019t work. This is yet another reminder that no matter what one <em>thinks<\/em>, there\u2019s only one test of how the world works: it\u2019s the economy, stupid!&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s all for the week, folks!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The RBI does not cut repo rates yet again. But is its calculus starting to change? Or are the risks of a rate cut simply too big to ignore? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242542,"featured_media":382688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[826,583,1030,707,621,596,770,1027,1028,1029,681,699],"class_list":["post-386881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-automobiles","tag-china","tag-erdoganomics","tag-foreign-exchange-reserves","tag-high-frequency-data","tag-inflation","tag-its-the-economy-stupid","tag-monetary-stability","tag-power-generation","tag-renewables","tag-repo-rate","tag-turkey"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s the economy, stupid! 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