{"id":381881,"date":"2024-06-26T14:13:08","date_gmt":"2024-06-26T08:43:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=381881"},"modified":"2024-06-27T11:58:38","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T06:28:38","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-who-pays-the-biggest-phone-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-who-pays-the-biggest-phone-bill","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Who pays the biggest phone bill?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-ad2f72ca wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"background-color:#dedede\">\n<p class=\"has-background\" style=\"background-color:#dedede\"><strong>KEY TAKEAWAYS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul style=\"background-color:#dedede\" class=\"has-background wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wireless telecom is on track for its biggest year since 2017 &#8211; having added 8.5 million customers between January and April. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NRIs deposited over $1 bn in Indian banks in April &#8211; the third month with billion-plus deposits. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Rupee has performed better, vis-a-vis the US Dollar, than most emerging market currencies &#8211; depreciating by 0.3% in the last month.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Domestic aviation saw a weak May &#8211; with a falling PLF, and passenger growth falling to 4%. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite predictions of a higher-than-average monsoon, India is currently at a 17% monsoon deficit. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We love IndiaDataHub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\"><em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a><em>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to IndiaDataHub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-new-wireless-explosion\"><strong>A new wireless explosion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember how mobile phones had sky-rocketed back in 2017? Jio had just entered the market, making the mother of all splashes \u2014 a premium mobile service that stayed free for a year. People flocked to the new service, which hit <a href=\"https:\/\/telecomtalk.info\/reliance-jio-year-in-review-2017\/172054\/\">160 million customers<\/a> within 16 months of launching. Established players bled customers to the new behemoth, slashing rates to keep up. The price of 4G data fell to half of what it was before. This made data affordable to most Indians, changing the country\u2019s relationship with the internet forever. Most players <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneycontrol.com\/news\/telecom\/telecom-sector-in-2017-a-year-marked-by-bitter-competition-and-consolidation-2469671.html\">couldn\u2019t keep up<\/a> with the sudden intensity of the competition, either dropping off or selling their businesses away.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s a fun fact: right now, wireless telecom is on track to have its biggest year since 2017.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>April marks the twelfth straight month that wireless operators have added new subscribers. Between January and April this year, the industry added 8.4 million new subscribers. For context, they added a total of 15.6 million subscribers in entirety of 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"977\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-19.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381892\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-19.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-19-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-19-1024x687.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-19-768x515.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Jio leads the pack for the year with 12.6 million new subscribers. Airtel comes in second, with 4.8 million new subscribers. Together, they have added twice the number of subscribers as the entire industry.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How is that even possible, though? Well, it\u2019s because not everybody has been adding subscribers \u2014 some are actively losing them. Vodafone-Idea lost 4 million subscribers in the first four months of this year. This is the <em>37th<\/em> month in a row that its subscriber base has fallen \u2014 an overall loss of 64 million customers, or a quarter of its former customer base. BSNL, meanwhile, lost almost 5 million subscribers in April.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"974\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-16.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-16-300x201.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-16-1024x685.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-16-768x514.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Quick quiz question, by the way: which part of India has the highest mobile bills?<br><br>The really big metro cities? Mumbai or Delhi? The richest states, perhaps? Maharashtra, Gujarat or Tamil Nadu? Well, none of the above!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As of December 2023, it\u2019s Andhra Pradesh and Telangana! Users from the circle run up an average monthly mobile bill of \u20b9181. Here\u2019s the complete list:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"971\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-21.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-21.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-21-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-21-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-21-768x512.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nris-put-money-in-indian-banks\"><strong>NRIs put money in Indian banks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-a-%E2%82%B92100-billion-bonus\">recently<\/a> saw how, NRIs made more deposits in India this March than at any time since 2013\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/t\/taper-tantrum.asp\">taper tantrum<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The trend continues. This April saw NRIs make deposits of more than US$ 1 billion \u2014 the third month in a row where the billion-mark was breached. Collectively, the three months brought in US$ 5.6 billion. To give you context, the last financial quarter we had such numbers was in June 2015.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"967\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-12.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381895\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-12.jpeg 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-12-300x199.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-12-1024x680.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-12-768x510.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F45e2e3ab-f70f-4a80-839f-e1fabf9b9708_2359x1567.png\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s some interesting math: Our total current account deficit this financial year comes to around US$40 billion. If we continue receiving NRI deposits at this rate, they\u2019ll off-set a remarkable 60% of this current account deficit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We\u2019ve gone into this <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-of-lungis-and-february-numbers\"><em>before<\/em><\/a><em>, but if the words \u201c<strong>current account<\/strong>\u201d mean nothing to you, here\u2019s a refresher: Broadly speaking, countries send other countries money in two ways. The money either has strings attached (for example, if you make an investment or give a loan abroad \u2014 basically gaining a lasting right of some sort) or doesn\u2019t come with any strings (for example, if you buy something \u2014 where the money, once paid, is gone forever). The latter is tallied together in the country\u2019s \u2018current account\u2019. If more money leaves the country in the current account than what comes in, the difference between the two is its \u2018current account deficit\u2019.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All the other money we bring in \u2014 FDI, portfolio investments, whatever \u2014 goes on top of that. This is, in short, fantastic news for our balance of payments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-flexing-the-rupee\"><strong>Flexing the Rupee<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps because of all the money coming in, the Rupee currently looks stronger than many foreign currencies. It depreciated 0.3% against the US Dollar last month. Most emerging market currencies have done far worse. Look at this chart for the details:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"964\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-17.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381890\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-17.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-17-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-17-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-17-768x508.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>One abiding source of the Rupee\u2019s strength is the RBI. The RBI has shown that it is willing to get its hands dirty and defend the Rupee whenever it grows too weak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How, you ask? See, the \u2018strength\u2019 of the Rupee, really, is its relative demand in currency markets compared to the demand for the Dollar. When the Rupee has low demand, the RBI fills in \u2014 selling the Dollars it holds in reserve and buying Rupees. In April, for instance, many investors had sold their portfolio investments in India, creating a glut of Rupees in the market. The RBI jumped in, selling US$ 3.6 billion to buy these Rupees. It also took on new obligations to sell US Dollars in the future \u2014 to the highest it has in four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"967\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-22.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-22.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-22-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-22-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-22-768x510.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-low-flying-economy\"><strong>A low-flying economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After the less-than-stellar high frequency data from a <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-to-cut-or-not-to-cut\">couple of weeks ago<\/a>, we have yet more evidence that May wasn\u2019t a great month for us.\u00a0While domestic aviation usually grows slightly faster than the rest of the economy, this time around, its growth was tepid. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The health of domestic aviation generally tells you a lot about an economy. Flights are expensive, and people only pay for a ticket when they\u2019re reasonably happy with their own financial situation. Most people fly either for business or for tourism \u2014 both of which matter to an economy. So when people seem less-than-keen on taking flights, it\u2019s a sign that the economy is sluggish. Or, at the very least, that people and businesses are keeping their budgets tight and holding on to their money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, things aren\u2019t <em>terrible<\/em> right now. Airlines still carry more passengers than before. Unlike what we were seeing this time last year, however, the growth has slowed down massively. At the moment, it\u2019s stuck in the low single digits.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"958\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381891\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-1024x674.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-18-768x505.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The tremors in domestic aviation also come through in a falling \u2018passenger load factor\u2019 (PLF) \u2014 a measure of how full flights are. In April, the industry\u2019s PLF fell by 1.5%. While we don\u2019t have consolidated data for May, we do know that major carriers like Vistara and Indigo have seen their PLF fall in May as well.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ghanan-ghanan\"><strong><em>Ghanan ghanan\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Did you know we\u2019re already three weeks into the monsoon? Or do you still feel like you&#8217;re stuck in an endless summer? <br><br>You\u2019ve probably felt the monsoons in their full force if you, like me, live in the beautiful city of Bengaluru. If you\u2019re from elsewhere, though, this fact might simply have slipped past you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although we were slated to have higher-than-average rains this year, that isn\u2019t how things have panned out so far. In fact, we\u2019re currently facing a 17% monsoon deficit. Things are particularly bad in north-western India, where the amount of rainfall so far is a mere 40% of what is normal. Central India, meanwhile, has seen 30% less rain than usual. Down the line, this might mean worse weather and poorer harvests. And this, in turn, could send food prices even higher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>South India, though, remains blessed. Check this graph for more:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1456\" height=\"965\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-20.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381893\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-20.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-20-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-20-1024x679.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-20-768x509.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s all for the week, folks! See you in the next one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mobile connections are growing at their 2017 pace. NRIs are making more deposits than ever. The Rupee is strong. But the economy is tepid. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242542,"featured_media":376316,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[864,627,708,863,865,862],"class_list":["post-381881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-aviation","tag-current-account","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-nri-deposits","tag-rainfall","tag-wireless-telecom"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s the economy, stupid! 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