{"id":380149,"date":"2024-06-05T12:05:25","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T06:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=380149"},"modified":"2024-06-05T12:05:26","modified_gmt":"2024-06-05T06:35:26","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-growth-in-all-its-flavours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-growth-in-all-its-flavours","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Growth in all its flavours"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We love India Data Hub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to India Data Hub. All mistakes, of course, are our own. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

The economy is growing<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We have new GDP data in. And here\u2019s the biggie: last quarter, India\u2019s GDP was 7.8% higher than the March quarter a year ago. It\u2019s a bit of a decline from the December quarter, when we grew by 8.6% year-on-year. All-in-all, though, through the last financial year, India\u2019s economy grew by 8.2%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a blockbuster<\/em> year. For context, it\u2019s a full 1.2% higher than we grew last year, and we were an economic outlier then as well!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, there\u2019s another GDP-like indicator we look at to measure economic growth: \u2018Gross Value Added<\/strong>\u2019 or \u2018GVA<\/strong>\u2019. We\u2019ve explored it in some detail before<\/a>, but to put things very simply, a country\u2019s GVA is its GDP stripped of any impact from indirect taxes and subsidies. In that sense, it\u2019s a purer measure of the business that\u2019s happening within a country.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Directionally, our GVA figures are similar to our GDP figures. That is, they tell us that we grew faster in the March quarter this year than the last, and that, as a whole, this financial year has been better for us than the last. Curiously enough, however, our GVA has grown at a much slower rate than our GDP. We saw a similar divergence last quarter as well. See this graph for more: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Why the difference? We\u2019re not sure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, it looks like we\u2019ll continue our current growth spurt this financial year. By current estimates, our economy will be 7% larger by the end of this financial year than it was at the beginning. That\u2019s less impressive than last year\u2019s 8.2%, but it\u2019s not bad at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the six years before the pandemic, we were growing at an average of 7.2%. We\u2019re back there by all accounts! Whatever else the pandemic may have done, it certainly hasn\u2019t brought our economy to its knees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

More tax, but companies lag <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The central government\u2019s tax collections have seen double-digit growth in March and April, after falling in February. Personal income tax collections, specifically, have leapt up by 20% in the last three months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s a grey lining to this silver cloud, though. Corporate taxes have fallen precipitously over the last three months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See, companies don\u2019t pay all their taxes in one go. Instead, they pay \u2018advance tax<\/strong>\u2019 throughout a fiscal year. In March, they \u201ctrue up\u201d things, tallying what they were supposed to pay against what they\u2019ve already paid. Then, they pay the government whatever they still owe. Now, this March, corporate tax collections fell by 15% year-on-year. In essence, companies overestimated how much tax they were to pay through the year, and in March, found that they had paid more than they had to. So they paid less in March.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The amount of advance tax a company pays is a function of what it thinks it\u2019ll earn over the year. So, if companies find that they\u2019ve paid extra tax, it\u2019s because their actual earnings were less than they hoped.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a problem, and one we should keep a close eye on. After all, an economy with less profitable companies grows slower. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Aaj nagad, aaj hi udhaar<\/em><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Notice two things in the graph below: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Bank credit in our economy has grown at a stable rate for the better part of two years, at around the 16% mark. <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Bank deposits, too, have grown at a lower but stable rate of around 12%, for a year. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Think about the business model of a bank: banks take money in as deposits, and lend it out as credit. So, when their lending starts growing at a faster rate than their deposits, a higher-and-higher portion of the cash they have is given out as loans! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That\u2019s precisely what\u2019s happening in India\u2019s banking sector. The \u2018loan-deposit ratio<\/strong>\u2019 of our banking system has been inching up steadily. Midway through last month, it was almost at 78% \u2014 2% higher than last year, and 4% above where it has been on average for the last 15 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    As the loan-deposit ratio goes up, there remains less-and-less room for banks to give loans. Three things can happen, in such a case (or, more likely, a combination of these): <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. The RBI lowers its repo rate. This will bring more liquidity into the system, by lowering the \u2018cost\u2019 banks have to pay for new money. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      1. Banks might try to draw more money as deposits. SBI, for instance, has hiked<\/a> the rates it is offering for fixed deposits.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        1. Banks will charge more interest on the loans they give. That\u2019ll help them earn better profits on the little money they do <\/em>have to give out, and might let them tap into more expensive sources of capital. Like certificates of deposit, as you\u2019ll soon see. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
          \n\n\n\n

          Certificates of deposit rise<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Here\u2019s one way banks are looking for extra money to lend out: they\u2019re issuing more \u2018certificates of deposit<\/strong>\u2019 (or \u2018CDs<\/strong>\u2019). These work like fixed deposits: you lock in your money for some time, and get to earn a nice, fixed interest on it. Banks usually issue these for a few months, to get through their short term money crunches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          You\u2019re likely to see more of these around when there\u2019s less money in the system. That\u2019s when banks that don\u2019t have a lot of deposit-making customers need to look elsewhere for capital. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

          And sure enough, they\u2019re up now. Over the last three years, the annual issuance of CDs has jumped up 6x. The total amount outstanding on these CDs has jumped up 4x over the same time. While bank deposits have been growing in the low teens, as we saw before, CD issuances have been growing by 20%. The gap between the two, as a result, has shrunk to the narrowest it has been since 2018.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          As banks find themselves with less money to lend, these are the sorts of expensive sources they need to fall back on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n\n\n\n

          Housing prices remain stable (except where they don\u2019t)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Here\u2019s some good news if you\u2019re trying to buy a house in a big city: if you look at prices from last year, and then again this year, you\u2019ll find that they\u2019ve risen by very little. In India\u2019s 10 biggest cities, the median increase in housing prices was 1.7% this March quarter, compared to the last.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Sidenote: Here\u2019s what the \u2018median increase\u2019 means. Imagine you had a list of how much the prices of all houses increased (or decreased) in the last year, arranged in ascending order. If you went to the exact centre of the list, that house would have increased by 1.7%. That is, there are as many houses where prices rose by less than 1.7%, or where prices fell, even, as there are houses where prices went up by more than that. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The median price rose by less than 1% in major cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Lucknow. It actually went down in Jaipur.

          All of this would be of little solace to you, however, if you want to buy a house in Bengaluru (where they went up by 9%), or Ahmedabad (where they were up by 12%<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
          \n\n\n\n

          That\u2019s all for the week, folks! Thanks for reading. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          It’s growth all around: in GDP figures, tax collections, credit, deposits, housing prices and more. In this edition, we look at what it all means. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242542,"featured_media":376316,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[809,812,810,811,594,595,813,770,682],"class_list":["post-380149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-advance-tax","tag-certificates-of-deposit","tag-credit","tag-deposits","tag-gdp","tag-gva","tag-housing-prices","tag-its-the-economy-stupid","tag-tax-collection"],"yoast_head":"\nIt\u2019s the economy, stupid! 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