{"id":379877,"date":"2024-06-03T13:05:12","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T07:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=379877"},"modified":"2024-06-03T18:12:51","modified_gmt":"2024-06-03T12:42:51","slug":"trading-options-on-election-results-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/trading-options-on-election-results-day","title":{"rendered":"Trading options on election results day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Indian elections are the mother of all events. This is the event with the highest level of uncertainty, as the rising VIX and option prices have been telling us. Every trader&#8217;s question is simple: What do you do on this day, and more importantly, what do you not do on this day?<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Elections-effect-on-FO-2.png\"><\/p>\n<h3>Election day analysis<\/h3>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Elections-effect-on-FO-3.png\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Indian market has opened with a big gap up on the back of exit polls as I am writing this. From here, there are three possibilities:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The actual poll results are way better than the exit polls. This is a low chance, as the exit polls have given a big majority to the NDA, and it is difficult to have better results than that.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The actual poll results are consistent with the exit polls, indicating that the market may be range-bound.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There will be a surprise in which the actual poll results can be lower than exit polls. This may trigger a sell-off, as this is a complete shocker. Even if the NDA has a majority, if the margin of victory is small, the market may take it negatively. This is the territory of \u201cthe impact of the highly improbable.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4><strong>Volatility<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Implied volatility is very high. If you did not understand that, don\u2019t worry. All I am saying is that the option prices are very high. Why? Because people who sell call options are scared the market will go violently up, so they will not sell them for cheap. And people who sell put options are scared the market will go violently down, so they will not sell them for cheap. What does that mean? Options are going to be very expensive, and it is not easy to make money buying them.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Realized volatility might also be very high. What does that mean? There will be a lot of up-and-down moves as the uncertainty is high. This means that if you are trading with small targets and tight stop losses, no matter whether you are bullish or bearish, chances are that you will be stopped out on both sides.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bid-offer spreads on some options will be wide, and long-term options might be illiquid. This is because no one wants to take a position and get stuck without a timely exit. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is a risk of gaps when the actual results come out. This means that you cannot trade with a stoploss because your orders may not go through at the desired price. Oh, and it is difficult to sleep if you have futures or naked options sold tonight.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Elections-effect-on-FO-4.png\"><\/p>\n<h3>Dos and don&#8217;ts<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You do not have to trade on election results day. There is no glory or wisdom in betting when there is high uncertainty. You can make money peacefully by trading on days with high predictability. So if you want to trade, you can. But there is no compulsion, and it might even make sense not to trade. Do not trade out of the fear of missing out on something big. Understand that the market will always be there, giving you opportunities.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trade with a small position size. Even a small position can make you a lot of money if the move is large.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Avoid naked selling of options. There can be large swings. You might eventually be right and make money, but it will not be easy to hold on to a large negative MTM and handle all that stress if a big move comes against you<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Please avoid buying both calls and puts expecting something to happen. As we explained earlier, the option prices are very high. So you might not make money because the price you paid to buy those options is difficult to recover, even with big moves.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Trading with tight stop losses. Trying to capture quick moves might be a bad idea. Random swings can take out your stop losses on both sides.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Unhedged overnight positions, particularly futures and naked selling options, are risky. Of course, there could be a big risk of a gap, and the financial advice here is that this is not good risk management. More importantly, it is mental health advice: Why take stress? Why lose sleep?<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Stay away from relatively illiquid options. Entry and exit might be difficult.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Be careful with market orders, especially with illiquid options like some stock options and faraway options. The bid-offer spread might be wide, and it might not be worth it.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Elections-effect-on-FO-5.png\"><\/p>\n<h3>The big question<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Elections-effect-on-FO-6.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I can&#8217;t tell you what to do, but I can tell you what I would do if I were to handle this. I would prioritize peace of mind, low stress, and risk management. I would also avoid a trade that could completely wipe out my capital. If I put it that way, I do not have too many options. As in choices, not the F&amp;O waala options \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<p>My only practical choice is to do <a href=\"https:\/\/web.sensibull.com\/optionsStrategiesList\">option spreads<\/a>. So this is what my step-by-step guide is:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Try to avoid my temptation to trade on election result day.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Try very hard, fail, and decide to take a safe trade \ud83d\ude09<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tell myself, &#8220;Okay, if I really want to do this, I will make one trade.&#8221; And I will either be right there or wrong there; I will make my peace with it. But I will avoid degen trading\u2014not too many trades, no intraday in and out, no churning, no scalping, no crazy-stunts.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For that one trade, do something that gives me a decent amount of reward without taking a huge risk.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This lands me on fully hedged option trades with limited risk and reward.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bull Call Spread or Bull Put Spread for an up move<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bear Call Spread or Bear Put Spread for down move<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Short iron condor for range-bound<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Long Iron condor for a violent move up or down<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h3>Why trade options spreads?<\/h3>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Limited reward, limited risks\u2014peace of mind.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cheaper than buying options and way safer than selling options<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No matter how much the market moves, I will not be worried about huge losses. Why? My maximum loss is limited.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I will not worry about the gap up or down, either, because, again, my maximum loss is limited.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I do not have to worry about stop-losses if the market swings wildly. Why? You guessed it right \ud83d\ude42 The max loss is built in, and the max loss can act as my stop loss.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">So that is that. My idea is to do one trade for tomorrow\u2014either long, short, range-bound, or volatile\u2014through a spread. And hold it. If I am wrong, I will be wrong once and lose money. But at least I will not do tens of trades and lose too much money.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Alright, hopefully, with all this, I am going to sleep peacefully. See you all on the other side.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Elections-effect-on-FO-7.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Indian elections are the mother of all events. This is the event with the highest level of uncertainty, as the rising VIX and option prices have been telling us. Every trader&#8217;s question is simple: What do you do on this day, and more importantly, what do you not do on this day? Election day [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242537,"featured_media":379896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-379877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trading options on election results day &#8211; Z-Connect by Zerodha<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Indian elections are the mother of all events. 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