{"id":379439,"date":"2024-05-28T18:17:21","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T12:47:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=379439"},"modified":"2024-05-30T14:23:39","modified_gmt":"2024-05-30T08:53:39","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-a-%e2%82%b92100-billion-bonus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-a-%e2%82%b92100-billion-bonus","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! A \u20b92,100 billion bonus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>We love India Data Hub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\"><em>This Week in Data<\/em><\/a><em>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macro data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to India Data Hub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-payday\"><strong>Payday!<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u20b92,100 billion.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s the over-sized, unexpected dividend the RBI will be forking over to the Central Government this year. I know, I know, the Government <em>always<\/em> deals in such big numbers that it\u2019s hard to appreciate just how big any one number is. For context, though: the total amount of money the Union Government expected to earn this year from all sources &#8211; including the taxes that you and I pay &#8211; was <a href=\"https:\/\/prsindia.org\/budgets\/parliament\/interim-union-budget-2024-25-analysis#:~:text=Expenditure%3A%20The%20government%20is%20estimated,and%2040%25%20of%20revenue%20receipts.\">\u20b930,802 billion<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So that\u2019s a surprise bonus of ~7%. Not too shabby, huh?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"676\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-13-1024x676.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-13-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-13-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-13-768x507.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-13.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This mega-dividend is almost two-and-a-half times what the RBI sent over last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why so? We\u2019re not sure: the RBI is yet to release its accounts for the last financial year. But the good folks at India Data Hub <a href=\"https:\/\/thisweekindata.indiadatahub.com\/p\/rbi-dividend-weak-fdi-and-some-stranger\">have a theory<\/a>. And that is: RBI stopped paying interest and even started earning some.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>See, for three years between FY 2021 and 2023, there was too much money in our economy. The RBI spent these years \u201cabsorbing liquidity\u201d &#8211; or, in simpler words, borrowing lots of money from the banks so that they could give less of it to other people. This was important to keep inflation down, but it also meant the RBI had to pay out interest to banks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, in FY 2024, things changed. The RBI stopped pulling money out of the economy. In fact, it actually started \u2018infusing\u2019 liquidity &#8211; which is, it gave loans out to banks and pocketed the interest. Not too much, just \u20b967 billion. But that\u2019s quite a dramatic reversal nonetheless, as the graph below tells you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, that doesn\u2019t account for <em>all <\/em>of the \u20b92,100 billion. The RBI probably also made a lot of money <a href=\"https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/finance\/news\/rbi-likely-selling-us-dollars-to-defend-rupee-from-sliding-to-record-low-123101900199_1.html\">selling its foreign exchange reserves<\/a> through the financial year. To over-simplify things, if the RBI bought 100 US Dollars in 2019 for \u20b97,000, they\u2019d sell for ~\u20b98,300 now, because of how the dollar has appreciated against the Rupee. That\u2019s a neat \u20b91,300 in profit for the RBI. Of course, the RBI doesn\u2019t sell its foreign reserves <em>in order to<\/em> earn an income &#8211; but that\u2019s nevertheless how the money appears in its books. Last year, these \u2018exchange gains\u2019 were the largest source of the RBI\u2019s income.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-3.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"676\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-3-1024x676.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-3-1024x676.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-3-300x198.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-3-768x507.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-3.jpeg 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The RBI\u2019s mega-dividend gives the Government quite some space to play with its expenditures. You\u2019ll probably see this accounted for in the revised budget that will be presented before the next Lok Sabha in July.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How big is its impact? Well, the Government expected to receive a total dividend of \u20b91,000 billion from all banks and financial institutions put together through this year. The RBI alone has now exceeded twice that figure. That&#8217;s a lot of money to get as a surprise. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-bad-year-for-foreign-investment\"><strong>A bad year for foreign investment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>FY 2024 has been a bad year for Foreign Direct Investment in India. If you\u2019re wondering what that is, by the way, we\u2019ve written about it <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-fixed-lines-soar-money-flies-people-dont\">before<\/a>:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u2026You put in serious money for the long haul. You see a country as a good place to do business, and so, you roll up your sleeves and dive in. You buy up a big piece of a company, or if you\u2019re very brave, you start a business from scratch, and then get involved in running it. This is \u2018foreign direct investment\u2019 (FDI).&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>December last year marked the first time, since the RBI started keeping track in 2011, that India had lost more FDI than it received. Now, though, that\u2019s become somewhat common. A net of US$ 4 billion in FDI left the country this March, for instance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A lot of the money that has come into India over the last decade is being \u2018repatriated,\u2019 as investors sell off their investments and take their returns back to their home countries. In March, investors took out US$ 6 billion from India. All in all, over the financial year, a record US$ 44 billion in investor money returned to source countries. It\u2019s the highest amount that\u2019s ever been repatriated from India &#8211; jumping up by 50% from FY 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the amount of investment India received hasn\u2019t risen. If you subtract what was sent back from it, on the balance, in FY 2024, India got just US$ 10 billion in foreign investment. That\u2019s the least net FDI we\u2019ve had in a decade, falling 60% from last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-14.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"673\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-14-1024x673.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-14-1024x673.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-14-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-14-768x505.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-14.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s that for declining investment. There\u2019s another rather curious sense in which India is losing FDI money, though. And that is: <em>Indian entities are investing a lot abroad<\/em>! In March, Indian companies made investments of US$ 3.8 billion abroad. That&#8217;s the highest we\u2019ve ever recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In total, Indian companies invested US$ 16 billion abroad in FY 2024. That\u2019s a good figure &#8211; it\u2019s up 15% from a year ago. It isn\u2019t unprecedented, however. In fact, it\u2019s actually down 10% from our outbound  investment in FY 2022.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-swades\"><strong>Swades<\/strong>(?)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Though foreign investments are stalling, the March quarter saw record NRI deposit inflows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The month of March saw the highest net inflows for any month since the \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/t\/taper-tantrum.asp\">taper tantrum<\/a>\u2019 of November 2013. Back then, the US Fed essentially announced that it would stop printing money, and bond investors threw a massive hissy-fit, which was felt across the world. It set off a period of sudden volatility for the Rupee, to counter which, the RBI had permitted Indian banks to take in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneycontrol.com\/news\/opinion\/a-re-look-at-rbis-extraordinary-steps-in-2013-to-stabilise-the-rupee-8887771.html\">deposits from NRIs<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NRIs deposited US$ 2.9 billion more in India than they withdrew in March. Across the quarter, they deposited a net of US$ 5.4 billion in India &#8211; the highest since June 2015.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-15.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"671\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-15-1024x671.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-15-1024x671.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-15-300x197.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-15-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-15.png 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inflation-around-the-world\"><strong>Inflation, around the world<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If you know one thing about Japan\u2019s monetary situation, it is this: Japan has <em>ridiculously<\/em> low inflation. Here\u2019s some news, though: the UK\u2019s inflation reading for March came in under that for Japan! That\u2019s <em>unthinkable<\/em>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last month, the UK registered a 33-month low inflation rate of 2.4%, falling 0.8% from March\u2019s 3.2%. It was helped along by <em>deflation<\/em> in the price of goods by 0.8%, compared to March last year. UK&#8217;s goods prices, in fact, fell for the first time since February 2021. In contrast, Japan had an inflation rate of 2.5% &#8211; marginally higher than the UK.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-4.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"666\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-4-1024x666.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-379445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-4-1024x666.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-4-300x195.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-4-768x500.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/image-4.jpeg 1456w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, at the deep end of the inflation pool, Turkey\u2019s inflation refuses to come down. In April, it saw inflation of 70% year-on-year.&nbsp;That&#8217;s not a typo. <em>Seventy per cent<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turkey\u2019s Central Bank has kept its policy rate at 50%. Sounds bad, doesn\u2019t it? If you borrow 100 Lira in Turkey today, you\u2019ll have to pay more than 150 Lira back <em>just next year<\/em>. But the funny thing (or it would have been so, if it weren\u2019t distressing) is that those 150 Lira would be <em>worth <\/em>88 of today\u2019s Liras, as things are going. In a way, then, it\u2019s a profitable proposition to borrow Turkish money, even at usurious rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s all for the week, folks! Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The RBI gives the government an unexpected bonanza. India, meanwhile, receives very little foreign investment. And other stories. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242542,"featured_media":377930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[655,596,770,795,664,704,794,699],"class_list":["post-379439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-foreign-direct-investment","tag-inflation","tag-its-the-economy-stupid","tag-japan","tag-liquidity","tag-rbi","tag-taper-tantrum","tag-turkey"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s the economy, stupid! 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