{"id":376788,"date":"2024-04-24T17:29:53","date_gmt":"2024-04-24T11:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=376788"},"modified":"2024-04-24T17:29:53","modified_gmt":"2024-04-24T11:59:53","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-less-energy-more-electronics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-less-energy-more-electronics","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Less energy, more electronics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>We love India Data Hub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\">This Week in Data<\/a>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macroeconomic data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to India Data Hub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.<\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>Exports fall, imports fall faster<\/h3>\n<p>There are two bits of news on how much we\u2019re trading with the world. One, we\u2019re selling less. Two, we\u2019re buying <em>much<\/em> less. Here is the math:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Our merchandise exports this March were 1% lower than in March last year. (In contrast, they had grown in the double digits back in February)<\/li>\n<li>Our merchandise imports declined by 6% over the same period.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Square these off, and our merchandise trade deficit (imports minus exports, that is) have dropped. In fact, they fell below US$ 16 billion for the first time in the better part of a year &#8211; since April 2023, that is. Add services to the picture, and we\u2019ve probably held our overall trade deficit to under US$ 1 billion over the month.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376800 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"965\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1-2.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1-2-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1-2-1024x679.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1-2-768x509.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a>All this shows up in how the Rupee has performed in international markets. We\u2019ve touched on this dynamic <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-lower-cpi-wpi-trade-balance-and-more\">before<\/a>, but let me quickly bring you to speed.<\/p>\n<p>When Indians buy something from abroad, they discard Rupees in favour of a foreign currency. The more they do so, the more readily Rupees are available on currency markets. Equally, when people from abroad buy something from India, they seek Rupees. The more they buy, the more Rupees leave currency markets. Imports and exports, therefore, pull at the price of the Rupee from different directions. Its final price is a question of how scarce it is on these international markets.<\/p>\n<p>In a month like this, when Indians are buying a lot less from abroad, less of the Rupee has reached currency markets. This relatively scarcity is driving up its price.<\/p>\n<p>Why are we selling less, though? There\u2019s a simple answer: our petroleum exports have crashed. Other things have done fairly well, in fact:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Excluding petroleum products, our exports have grown by 8% this March, compared to March last year.<\/li>\n<li>Indian chemical exports grew by almost 40% in this period.<\/li>\n<li>Electronics exports grew by 23%, year on year.<\/li>\n<li>Other sectors, like pharmaceuticals and engineering exports, also saw double-digit growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Our imports, on the other hand, have declined across the board. For one, our petroleum imports dropped by 4%. But exclude these, and our imports still fell by 7%. The fall came from across sectors, as this graph will tell you:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376801 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"970\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2-1.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2-1-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/2-1-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3>India PLIes its electronics trade<\/h3>\n<p>In all, over the last financial year, India exported 3.5% less goods than we did in the year before. There was one stand-out exception, though: <em>electronics<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Our electronics exports last financial year were 28% higher than in FY 2023, well above the 22% growth in our imports. This is part of a multi-year trend; our electronics exports have grown faster than our imports for five of the last six years. In the last five years, our exports have <em>tripled<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><em>Amazing, right<\/em>!?<\/p>\n<p>Almost, though not quite. Let\u2019s sober down for a moment and look at the graph below. There\u2019s one thing all these percentages hide: our electronics exports are a mere fraction of our electronics imports. Last year, for instance, our exports were less than a third of our imports. That\u2019s how it\u2019s been for a while. If our exports increase by $1 billion, that\u2019s a substantial expansion of what we sell. If our imports grow by as much, it\u2019s hardly a blip.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/3-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376802 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/3-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/3-3.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/3-3-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/3-3-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/3-3-768x510.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That spot of pessimism notwithstanding, there\u2019s definitely a long-term shift in our electronics trade.<\/p>\n<p>Between FY 2014 and FY 2019, our electronics imports were growing by 11.4%. That has fallen slightly since. Over the subsequent five years, our imports grew at a slower pace of 10.1%. It\u2019s a drop, sure, but only a marginal one. Nothing to get too excited about.<\/p>\n<p>Add our exports to the mix, however, and things change starkly. Between FY 2014 and FY 2019, our net imports (that is, imports minus exports) grew at 14%. In the five years thereafter, however, their growth has dropped precipitously: to a mere 5% per year.<\/p>\n<p>In essence, while our electronics imports have grown at a fair clip, our exports have risen far more dramatically. While, in absolute terms, our exports still lag our imports, they\u2019re catching up fast. We owe this rise, arguably, to industrial policy: the \u2018production-linked incentives\u2019 for the electronics industry, in particular, seems to have catalysed a lot of this growth.<\/p>\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/4-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376803 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/4-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"963\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/4-2.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/4-2-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/4-2-1024x677.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/4-2-768x508.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/h3>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3>Life insurance soars, general insurance sinks<\/h3>\n<p>India\u2019s life insurance sector just had a growth spurt. The sector\u2019s \u2018new business premiums,\u2019 or all the money they raked in for selling new policies, jumped by 26% in the quarter that ended this March, compared year-on-year. They haven\u2019t grown this fast in any of the last six quarters.<\/p>\n<p>LIC is leading this pack. Its new business premiums jumped by more than a <em>third<\/em>, year-on-year, for the quarter. The rest of the industry, in contrast, grew by a mere 16%.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/5-2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376804 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/5-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"970\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/5-2.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/5-2-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/5-2-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/5-2-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>There are two ways you can push up new business premiums. One, you can sell more policies. Two, you can charge more per policy. Most of last quarter\u2019s growth has come from the latter &#8211; from a rise in premium amounts.<\/p>\n<p>The <em>number<\/em> of policies, on the other hand, hasn\u2019t risen quite as dramatically. 10.3 million policies, in all, were sold last quarter; 5% up from last year\u2019s March quarter. Sounds neat, I know, but that&#8217;s nowhere close to their peak from a few years ago, in the quarter that closed in March 2021. They\u2019re still 10% lower than they were back then.<\/p>\n<p>Once again, LIC\u2019s dominant presence skews the data. Other insurers have grown the number of policies they sell over this period.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/6-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376805 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/6-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"968\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/6-2.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/6-2-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/6-2-1024x681.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/6-2-768x511.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>General insurance, on the other hand, is seeing its growth stall. Last quarter, the sector&#8217;s premiums grew by a mere 9%, year-on-year: the slowest it has grown in six quarters. This deceleration wasn\u2019t uniform:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Health insurance, for instance, continued to see healthy growth: in the high teens.<\/li>\n<li>Motor insurance premiums saw anaemic, single-digit growth.<\/li>\n<li>Crop insurance tanked, with premiums falling by 15%, year-on-year. This is the weakest performance it has turned in for more than three years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-376806 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"971\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/7.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/7-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/7-1024x683.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/7-768x512.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1456px) 100vw, 1456px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>That\u2019s all for the week, folks! Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India&#8217;s exports have fallen, but its imports have fallen much more &#8211; a good thing for the Rupee, in all.  Meanwhile, the data shows that both electronics and life insurance are thriving. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242542,"featured_media":372472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[626,719,723,524,722,646,721,720],"class_list":["post-376788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-balance-of-payments","tag-electronics","tag-general-insurance","tag-insurance","tag-life-insurance","tag-merchandise-trade-deficit","tag-new-business-premium","tag-petroleum-products"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Less energy, more electronics &#8211; Z-Connect by Zerodha<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"India&#039;s exports have fallen, but its imports have fallen much more - a good thing for the Rupee, in all. Meanwhile, the data shows that both electronics and life insurance are thriving.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-less-energy-more-electronics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Less energy, more electronics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"India&#039;s exports have fallen, but its imports have fallen much more - a good thing for the Rupee, in all. 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