{"id":374555,"date":"2024-03-22T12:15:46","date_gmt":"2024-03-22T06:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/?p=374555"},"modified":"2024-03-22T12:15:46","modified_gmt":"2024-03-22T06:45:46","slug":"its-the-economy-stupid-sticky-inflation-zooming-forex-and-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-sticky-inflation-zooming-forex-and-more","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s the economy, stupid! Sticky inflation, zooming forex and more"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>We love India Data Hub\u2019s weekly newsletter, \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/indiadatahub.substack.com\/\">This Week in Data<\/a>\u2019, which neatly wraps up all major macroeconomic data stories for the week. We love it so much, in fact, that we\u2019ve taken it upon ourselves to create a simple, digestible version of their newsletter for those of you that don\u2019t like econ-speak. Think of us as a cover band, reproducing their ideas in our own style. Attribute all insights, here, to India Data Hub. All mistakes, of course, are our own.<\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Some new inflation data has come in. Before that, do you remember what we went through last month?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Uhh. Things were\u2026 No. No clue.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Sigh, a thankless job, this. Check out <a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-lower-cpi-wpi-trade-balance-and-more\">this post<\/a> for the details. But we\u2019ll do a quick recap anyway.<\/p>\n<p>To measure inflation &#8211; or changes in price &#8211; you look at a \u201cconsumer price index\u201d. From last month:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">\u201cWell, we conjure up an imaginary \u2018basket\u2019 with most things you might want to buy. That\u2019s almost 300 things \u2013 eggs, milk, kerosene, house rent, school fees, movie tickets, alcohol \u2013 all sorts of stuff. We compute the price of the entire basket to come to a \u2018consumer price index\u2019 (CPI). Changes in the CPI tell us how much inflation we\u2019ve seen. For instance, if the price of this basket was \u20b9100 in January 2023 and rose to \u20b9104 in January 2024, the period in between saw inflation of 4%.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Measured this way, in January, inflation had come to a three-month low of 5.1%. It hasn\u2019t budged in February. It\u2019s been floating around or above 5% for the better part of a year.<\/p>\n<p>Why is it so? Well, there\u2019s more to drill into.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Let me guess\u2026 Something about inflation having different parts?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s\u2026 not bad! Yes. Exactly that. Returning to last week:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px\"><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">\u201c&#8230;the CPI basket seems torn in two halves, both of which are moving very differently:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\n<ul>\n<li><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Food has been deeply volatile. In some months, food prices have jumped up by as much as 10%. In others, they have risen by a tame 3%. This has given the year\u2019s inflation figures most of their turbulence. Food inflation fell a little between December and January \u2013 from 8.7% to 7.6%.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<li><em><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The prices of everything else, in comparison, have been fairly predictable. They\u2019ve fallen gently through the last year, and in January, came to 3% \u2013 their lowest point in years.\u201d<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>It\u2019s the same story for February. Food inflation has remained high &#8211; at roughly 8%. The prices of other things, however, have only increased by 3% since last year. That\u2019s slower than we have seen in a while.<\/p>\n<p>Of everything one might want to buy, the prices of food are perhaps the hardest to predict. Weather, soil health, water, pests, diseases, spoilage\u2026 there are simply too many variables to account for. And it\u2019s food prices that have made the job of taming inflation so frustrating.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374556 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1010\" height=\"665\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/1.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/1-300x198.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/1-1024x674.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/1-768x506.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1010px) 100vw, 1010px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s another way to slice the inflation basket: you can divide it between goods and services:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This February, services inflation was at 3.1% against February last year. That\u2019s the lowest we\u2019ve ever seen in our current series. In ten years, that is! By and large, services are performed by people. Their wages make up the biggest chunk of services inflation. When services inflation hits a ten-year low, it means that wage costs aren\u2019t too high.<\/li>\n<li>In contrast, goods inflation stayed at a fairly high 5.5% in February. But when you look at goods other than food, it\u2019s only at 2.7%, the lowest in years. Once again, food is driving up our prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/2-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374557 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/2-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1016\" height=\"673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/2-3.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/2-3-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/2-3-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/2-3-768x508.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1016px) 100vw, 1016px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Rural wages are growing at a mild, gentle pace. In January, they grew by 6% against January last year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Is that a good number? I have no idea.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Understandable. But we just talked about something that\u2019s a decent benchmark.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Inflation?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Precisely! The amount wages grew by, in isolation, is rather useless information. What you really want to know is whether wages can buy more things. As wages grow, things are becoming more expensive as well. So, the real question is: are wages rising faster than the prices of goods?<\/p>\n<p>For this month, they are, even if only by a little bit.<\/p>\n<p>Look at the chart below for a better sense of things. The graph on the left, below, tells you how much wages have moved up as a whole. The one on the right adjusts this amount for the inflation that took place at the same time.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/3-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374558 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/3-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1067\" height=\"704\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/3-4.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/3-4-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/3-4-1024x676.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/3-4-768x507.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1067px) 100vw, 1067px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This gentle rate of growth confirms what we talked about before: wages, in themselves, aren\u2019t pushing up prices very much, for now.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/subtext\/its-the-economy-stupid-of-lungis-and-february-numbers\">Last week<\/a>, we looked at our trade balance in services. This time around, we have data on our goods trade balance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Any surprises?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>None. Imports went up. Exports went up. Both by 12%. Everything\u2019s hunky dory. Some of this increase has to do with February\u2019s extra day, given that this is a leap year. There\u2019s more on that in last week\u2019s edition.<\/p>\n<p>For the third straight month, our <strong>merchandise trade deficit<\/strong> &#8211; that is, how much our goods imports exceed our exports &#8211; is under US$ 20 billion. Last week, we saw how our trade surplus in services was around the same ball-park. On the whole, we spent about as much money as we earned last month. Perhaps that\u2019s a surprise!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374559 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1066\" height=\"706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-4.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-4-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-4-1024x678.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-4-768x508.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1066px) 100vw, 1066px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>What do we spend on? And how do we earn?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s put down a few quick pointers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Electronics were a big part of our export growth &#8211; jumping up by 50% from last February, Chemicals and pharmaceuticals, too, did well &#8211; growing by 30% and 20% respectively.<\/li>\n<li>A lot of what the additional imports we made this year were for ordinary people to use, rather than for industry. Gold imports doubled over last February. Electronics, meanwhile, grew by 20%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This chart should give you some sense of the numbers.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/5-1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374560 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/5-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1087\" height=\"727\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/5-1.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/5-1-300x201.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/5-1-1024x685.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/5-1-768x514.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1087px) 100vw, 1087px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>India\u2019s foreign exchange reserves are rising sharply. In the last week of February, they shot up by US$ 6 billion. And then, in the subsequent week, they went up another US$ 10 billion. By March 8, it was at US$ 636 billion. For context, the highest it\u2019s ever been was US$ 642 billion, back in September 2021.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374561 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1114\" height=\"738\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6.jpg 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6-1024x679.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/6-768x509.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1114px) 100vw, 1114px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>I know I\u2019m supposed to be impressed. And that\u2019s a very impressive number, no doubt. But I don&#8217;t get it. Why must we hoard other countries&#8217; currency?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A country\u2019s \u2018foreign exchange reserves\u2019 work a little like its savings. Like your personal savings, these reserves can have many uses.<\/p>\n<p>The country can use them to buy its own currency in international markets, to make its value go up. It can use them to pay off debts. If things go seriously wrong, it can use them to import essentials. They don\u2019t have a single, defined purpose &#8211; they help a country ride out any monetary shocks it would otherwise face.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ahh. What do our savings amount to?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>They\u2019ll keep us comfortable, for sure. Even in a worst case scenario, they\u2019ll buy us 11 months worth of our imports. That\u2019s 11 months we can survive if our economy were to suddenly break down for some reason.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Last month, we\u2019d also spoken of how inflation in the United States has refused to break below 3%, forcing the US Fed to keep interest rates high.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So? Has it come down finally?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No. To the contrary, it\u2019s gone up marginally &#8211; it\u2019s now at 3.2%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wow.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yeah! Some pointers:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Manufacturers have actually seen things get slightly more costly than they were in January &#8211; with prices edging up by 1.6%, compared to 1% in the previous month. To be fair, though, that\u2019s well lower than the 4.7% increase they had seen this time last year.<\/li>\n<li>The least volatile parts of what manufacturers are buying &#8211; the \u201ccore\u201d inputs &#8211; have risen by 2.2% since last year &#8211; which is the same as it was in January.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/7-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-374562 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/7-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1108\" height=\"736\" srcset=\"https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/7-1.png 1456w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/7-1-300x199.png 300w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/7-1-1024x680.png 1024w, https:\/\/zerodha.com\/z-connect\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/7-1-768x510.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1108px) 100vw, 1108px\" \/><\/a>But that\u2019s the US. Closer home, Indonesia is in a rough patch.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How bad is it?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Quite so. Their exports have dropped for nine straight months. In February, their exports were 9.4% lower than they were last year. That, too, was after some cushioning from selling commodities like oil and gas. Keep them aside, and exports actually shrunk by 10.2%.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, their imports have jumped up too, by 15.8%. Indonesia used to have a pretty neat trade surplus &#8211; amounting to US$ 5.4 billion in February 2023. This February, though, this had fallen dramatically, to just US$ 0.9 billion.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s keeping them back?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Well, China\u2019s economic misfortunes could be one answer. The country is Indonesia\u2019s biggest trade partner &#8211; and usually makes up a quarter of all its international trade. But now that China isn\u2019t doing too well, Indonesia is feeling the pinch. Indonesia\u2019s exports to the country fell by 19.4% in just the last year.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>That\u2019s all we have for the week. Thanks for reading!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No alarms and no surprises last week. Inflation stayed sticky, rural wages saw mild real growth, and merchandise trade remained steady. India&#8217;s forex reserves zoomed. US inflation refused to budge lower, while Indonesia is in trouble. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":242542,"featured_media":372472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[532],"tags":[544,647,596,646,645,644],"class_list":["post-374555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-subtext","tag-economy","tag-exports","tag-inflation","tag-merchandise-trade-deficit","tag-trade-balance","tag-wage-growth"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.5 (Yoast SEO v26.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>It\u2019s the economy, stupid! 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